Racing: Wet track a big factor in Derby

Jonathan Riddell is adamant Jimmy Choux (1) will handle the 2400m distance in the feature today. Photo / Getty Images

Perhaps fitting in a race worth $2.2 million, the Telecom Derby field will take some secrets with them to the start at Ellerslie this afternoon.

The one factor we will know for sure at that point is exactly what the track conditions will be.

What we won't know is how much the predicted overnight rain will affect most of the leading chances.

Or whether a track that might by 5.52pm become testing enough to damage hot favourite Jimmy Choux's chances of managing the 2400m.

A stack of variables there.

One inescapable conclusion, though, is that without too many restrictions on track conditions and distance concerns, Jimmy Choux and He's Remarkable are the two best horses in the field for this race.

As trainer John Bary pointed out, fairly obviously, midweek, Jimmy Choux will either handle the distance or he won't and there is no way to pre-empt that, except perhaps in the mind of his rider Jonathan Riddell, who is adamant he will.

Which brings us to He's Remarkable. There is wide-held belief the talented stayer cannot manage a wet track and although he's doubtless better on a good surface, his record says he's not hopeless when there is rain around.

He was probably a touch unlucky not to beat Jimmy Choux in the $1 million 2000 Guineas and the slow track that day was wet enough to get them running close to 1.40 for the 1600m.

He looked uncomfortable on the slow Trentham surface in the Wellington Stakes, but was still taking ground off Jimmy Choux late in third place, albeit that the winner may have had a bit left.

Both of those were at 1600m and there is little doubt the step this time to 2400m is going to suit He's Remarkable.

Unless mega rain arrives, Ellerslie will be a summer wet track, which bears no resemblance to a winter wet track.

So much depends on when the rain stops, or if it stops before the close of the meeting.

Don't forget close to 100mm of rain arrived at Ellerslie the day before the Karaka Million and they were running 1.10 for the 1200m on raceday.

These days when rain comes heavily and quickly, Ellerslie's drains eliminate so much water before it can do damage. The run-off element is huge.

So, as mentioned, we'll know the conditions as the Derby field steps on to the track, but we didn't know yesterday.

Provided he can get some decent footing He's Remarkable will run a huge race.

Jimmy Choux might well be a freak that can run any distance and if that's the case he'll be winning. If there is even the slightest chink in that stamina index look for He's Remarkable to be getting over the top of him late.

They are an extremely even lot behind these two. O'Reilly's Prize has impressed and was totally luckless when fifth behind Icepin in the Avondale Guineas. Astute trainer Dave Haworth is very happy the horse handled his first attempt at right-handed racing well and with the way he has trained on.

Before he dropped out in the Avondale Guineas, Hidden Asset looked to be heading in the right direction towards consideration in the Derby. To perhaps turn the 3-year-old's immaturity around, trainer Shaune Ritchie has had him at the beach for 10 days until yesterday and says there are a lot of signs that the horse has managed to get back on track.

That is just another mystery that will go to the barriers late today in what will be a fascinating race.

Horses should have W or D, for wet or dry, stamped on their foreheads as they walk through the parade ring today.

If the track is significantly affected by the rain you will have essentially almost an entire race meeting of dry-track horses racing on unsuitable conditions for them.

One who might handle it is Rockburn (No14, R6), who has won and been placed in two starts on a slow track. He was totally luckless when sixth at Ellerslie last start, but the time before was super impressive winning from the back at Awapuni. This is a very competitive race, but Rockburn is one to follow. The easing of the track will suit Saint Pat (No10).

Rio Grand (No4, R1) will be tough to keep out in the first if the track is reasonable. He has gone close to winning his last two and is drawn to get the run of the race this time. Secret Love (No13) will love the step to 1400m.

Bellino (No5, R2) has been getting home strongly over 1600m and steps this time to 2100m. That's a fairly tough race for a 3-year-old against older horses, but he's worth a look. Marvon Downs (No3) was impressive leaving maidens at Rotorua.

Titch (No1, R3) had an impossible task under 62.5kg at Taranaki last start so you can forget his sixth. This time his 58kg gets reduced to 54kg, less than the minimum weight. Rain is no worry to him and even though he's jumping up to open company, he's well used to that level. He's Under The Gun (No7), coming out of the Avondale Cup, needs a big run to push his way into the Auckland Cup.

Gorse (No1, R4) has won and been twice placed on a slow track and has not been out of the money on a dead surface. He gets back and runs on and the small field this afternoon is going to suit beautifully. The value could be in Noble Warrior (No3), an underrated type who has been freshened since a West Coast trip in January.

Vonusti (No1, R7) hasn't won a race since taking the $1 million Telegraph in January last year, but he hasn't been totally idle. He was beaten in this Darley Plate by a short head by Beautiful Girl last year then in the spring finished second at weight-for-age behind Twilight Savings at Rotorua.

He has 58kg topweight, but there is no great scale in this race so he's not too badly off. The track conditions won't worry him. He looks one of the better bets on the programme.

Leica Scotch (No4, R8) is proving costly. He's not racing badly, though, and needs just a little luck to turn his lack of winning form around. The Grey Storm (No10) won well enough here last start to suggest a step up in distance may not do any harm.

Splinter (No10, R10), being by Thorn Park, might handle the conditions better than most in the last.

She has been turning in great efforts and has been placed on a slow surface. Read My Lips (No12) was denied a clear run last start after a dashing debut win, but it's anyone's guess how she might handle the track if it gets wet.