KEY POINTS:
No track is easy to punt on, but good racedays at Te Aroha offer fairness and often good value when the fields stack up well. Today, they do.
Tipping quinellas as a punting proposition as distinct from just a saver can be dangerous, but you would imagine something
would have to go wrong for the quinella result in Race 4 not to be Mufhasa (No 1) and Dashing Donna (No 2). Both 3-year-olds are headed for top company and are in top form. The quinella won't be huge, but with Yao (No 4) and Run Roxy Run (No 3) engaged the 1-2 result is no gimme and might be a touch of value. The contest between Mufhasa and Dashing Donna should be exciting given the filly claims 2kg, but Mufhasa is very good.
King Cambo (No 2, R1) could be a good way to start the day. He looked exceptional at the start of his first real campaign and should go a nice race here fresh. From a nice draw Lumination (No 6) can run a race fresh.
Race 5 looks tough, but Attalla (No 2) looked good enough winning fresh at Te Rapa last month to suggest she can make a decent job of a R70 task. There was a bit to like about the way she hit the line last start. Makayla (No 9) has been freshened and runs some of her best races in that state.
The barrier draw is a horror, but if Cagney (No 5, R6) can get any sort of a run from out wide in the 13 gate he'll be hard to contain. Cagney's connections have been admirably patient - he's a 5-year-old and this is just his 10th start - and it is a tragedy he's drawn so badly in a valuable race. He's a smart type who was upset by wet conditions last start and had no luck from a wide gate the time before. He's worth the risk. Richard Beymer (No 2) is close to a win and looks a danger.
Keepa Cruisin (No 16, R7) has all the positives to look the one to beat in the $200,000 New Zealand Bloodstock Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes. She gets a 2.5kg age allowance on the older mares, has the rails draw to guarantee a nice run behind the speed and has form around many of the best horses this season. Keepa Cruisin may even lead, or will she hand up to her stablemate Culminate (No7), who is likely to work across the field early from a wide draw to prevent her covering too much extra ground? Another pair of stablemates in Irlanda (No 1) and Kirra Sand (No 3) are major threats. Irlanda finished second in this last year and Kirra Sand is better than her overall fork on paper appears. She ran a nice race at Tauranga last start and well be well suited by this big track. Throw Imananabaa (No 2) into your multiples as well.
That dead-heat win at Tauranga by I'm Isaac (No 4, R8) was no fluke. He is a game, talented, improving stayer and there is no reason why he can't be a major player in this race as well. After a slight problem, Tarbach (No 12) ran out of condition just when he looked likely to win at Te Aroha last start and should be improved for this outing. There are plenty of chances - Desert Flight (No 2) didn't react well to be restrained to race mid-field last start and should do better here pressing forward.
Race 9 is a great betting affair. The paper form of Cape Fear (No 2)might look average, but that would be a unwise assumption. He has been hampered in both races this preparation and is overdue for a change of luck. He finishes off well when things go right and this track should suit perfectly. Capacia (No 4) finally got her luck last time to the races and scored impressively, looking as though she would measure up to this grade. She has drawn wide, but there is a long run down the back straight on this course from the 1600m starting point. Keepaflyin (No 9) is better than her record suggests.
Pentour (No 10, R10) could be some value in the last. He failed last start in the Derby and before that looked promising. Staying rather than the 1600m distance here is his strong point, but he has been freshened and might react better than expected. He's got a touch of class. Stone Garden (No 2) might be ready to show something after one start back from a spell. He has looked good at times and is better than many of these. Shevchenko (No 15) won well enough at Matamata last time to be given a chance of getting into this trifecta.