KEY POINTS:
Eighty per cent of today's $150,000 Avondale Cup could be won by the winning post with a round to travel.
Barrier draws and luck in running play a massive part in deciding Avondale Cups and punters will get a fair idea of where their money is heading with
a lap to go.
The connections of emerging staying star Aftershock got a shock all right when the horse drew the outside starting gate of the 16 runners.
Aftershock is an on-pace runner who has led in each of his last three races. If the decision is made to go forward again, the question then will be how much he will have to use up to get over to the rail before the turn out of the straight.
Avondale Cups are often not run like true tests of stamina compared with, say, the 2400m Waikato Cup where horses wind up from a fair way out and have to prove how good they are at staying.
For a 2200m race, the Avondale is a much sharper race where the ability to sprint 200m quickly at any given point of the race can prove decisive.
For that reason the John Sargent-trained mare Sharvasti looks the safest bet for group one glory this afternoon.
She has a good barrier in No 6, will be ridden by a top staying jockey in Noel Harris, has a nice weight at 53.5kg and, perhaps more important than any of those, she possesses a devastating sprint.
That was evidenced when she charged at the leaders to win at Ellerslie on Melbourne Cup day with a sprint that saw her run away by 2.25 lengths.
She should get an economical run from her barrier and if Harris can find her clear space ahead from the 400m it will take a good effort to hold her out.
Sargent says the mare has completely recovered from the cut foot that saw her a late scratching from the Counties Cup at Ellerslie last Saturday week.
You can't count Aftershock out simply because of the draw or because he is looking at group one without having previously raced in open company.
He walked home to win at Dargaville last start and while most of the leading chances here would have won the same race, not all of them would have done it with the ease Aftershock achieved.
Lisa Cropp has been charged with the task of finding Aftershock a decent passage and if she can produce some of her magic she might be saluting the judge.
Australian-trained mare Upstaged and Melbourne Cup runner Mandela are right in the race.
Few horses come straight out of a Melbourne Cup and race at the top of their form, but it won't surprise trainer Richard Yuill if Mandela does.
Visually, Yuill believes Mandela is a significantly better horse than before he went to Australia and won the Geelong Cup on his way to finishing 9th in the Melbourne Cup.
"He's done better out of the trip than I ever anticipated he would. He's dappled up, looks stronger and is generally a better looking horse - he's better for the trip," said Yuill.
Mandela galloped before the first race at Ellerslie last weekend and rider Grant Cooksley got off and told Yuill: "Hasn't he grown up."
Yuill has an inkling Mandela's condition has nothing to do with the trip. "I don't believe he's ever been 100 per cent and now he is."
He also has another inkling. "Maybe he needs to be a skinny, ugly thing to race at his best. He might go shocking tomorrow looking as good as he does."
Upstaged is a better than useful mare who won a Listed Stakes race in Adelaide on Melbourne Cup day and was subsequently beaten three-quarters of a length by promising stayer Rubijon in the Ballarat Cup. She races forward and Leith Innes has the job of getting her a comfortable passage.
Ritzy Lady and the luckless Ntamack, second and third in the Counties Cup, are definite winning chances, but will need early luck from barriers No 15 and No 14.
* Latest odds: $5 Sharvasti, Mandela; $6 Aftershock; $9 Ritzy Lady; $11 Ntamack; $13 Mirkola Lass; $14 Valley Chief; $15 Upstaged, Ceejay; $21 Genebel; $22 Envoy; $31 Fasaadi, Pacific Dancer, Maroofity, All's Well; $81 Shereigns.