KEY POINTS:
Seachange may have run her last race.
But that's not simply because the outstanding Cambridge mare finished in the second half of the field in yesterday morning's (NZT) $950,000 Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot.
Owner, Queenslander Dick Karreman and his bloodstock manager Rick Williams will spend a week analysing their options.
One is to miss the planned July Cup at Newmarket and run instead in a fillies and mares' 1600m, the other is retirement.
This was always going to be Seachange's last racing campaign.
Clearly, yesterday's result was a huge disappointment to the Seachange camp and to the New Zealand thoroughbred industry.
Rider Ted Durcan, not one to make excuses, blamed the track in part.
Durcan said that after five consecutive days racing at Ascot the surface was chopped up, conditions that have never suited Seachange.
Only a small amount of the forecast rain arrived before the Golden Jubilee.
The commentators on the At The Races feed that New Zealand received made the point that the rain only settled the dust, but you could clearly see clods being thrown back during the Golden Jubilee.
"It was only the top two inches, but it meant you couldn't get a grip," said Durcan. "She was okay while I had hold of her, but when I let her head down she couldn't grip the footing."
Seachange was right behind the pace until the 300m, but when the pressure went on and Durcan had to start riding her along she lost ground on the leaders.
Durcan told Karreman, Williams and caretaker trainer Graeme Sanders that he'd looked after Seachange and that his strong advice was to go forward to the Newmarket meeting.
Another probable factor was the barrier draw.
Seachange came out of gate No 16, on what is called the far side in Europe and which we call the inside running rail. In the straight course races the winners practically all week at Ascot had been coming down the grandstand side, or outside running rail.
In reverse of the case in Australasia, barrier numbers start from the outside of the track.
The first four, Kingsgate Native, War Artist, Sir Jerry and Takeover Target came from gates 1, 2, 3, 4, which is too significant to be mere coincidence. Rick Williams said there is no panic to plan the next step.
"We'll give Graeme a week to assess her and give us his opinion, but I'm sure she went into the race at the top of her form.
"She looked bright and I'm sure this isn't a case of going one race too far (many).
"Very disappointing, but then that's just one part of horse racing."
The Australian veteran Takeover Target shortened into outright favourite in the last two minutes of betting and was brave in finishing fourth.
He was on the speed throughout and was left in front 350m out. His older legs couldn't quite match the late sprint of the first three, two of which Kingsgate Native and Sir Gerry, are 3-year-olds.
Credit to rider Jay Ford, who, as usual, barely flicked the horse with his whip, realising he was doing his best.
Kingsgate Native became the first English-trained galloper all week to win a group one at Ascot.
He might have gone out at 33-1, but his trainer John Best rated him a big winning chance. "I thought the 33-1 was a crazy price for a horse that won the Nunthorpe Stakes last season," Best told The Guardian.
Best's owner is a professional punter and is thought to have won massive amounts on Kingsgate Native.
Pity he didn't have an account with the New Zealand TAB - Kingsgate Native paid $57 here.
Seachange was the short-priced favourite on our tote, but the TAB bookmakers had her at $14.
