Racing: Promising stayer expected to produce Xcellent results

You will see two of the best emerging horses in the north going around in supporting races at Ellerslie this afternoon.

Don't be surprised if you see Xcellent (No 7, R4) and Clarissa (No 11, R5) on centre stage before too much of summer is played out.

Xcellent was responsible for the most astonishing maiden win so far this season when he debuted at Te Rapa on November 6. He looked out of play when he missed away and settled last, but the finishing effort he put on dispelled that and stamped him as one of the most promising stayers around.

The step to 2000m at a horse's second raceday start is never easy, but it will be a surprise if that seriously hampers Xcellent today.

Clarissa should probably be unbeaten in two starts instead of still carrying the maiden tag. Wide draws have cost her dearly in her two appearances and last start she met Able Standard and was beaten half a length after sitting in the death seat against a horse who is now unbeaten in two starts and will run just about favourite for today's Derby Prelude.

You can't have better form than that for a maiden race. She steps up to 1600m, has drawn nicely at No 4 and anything but a win, barring atrocious luck, would surprise.

Her trainer Roger James lines up La Sizeranne (No 4, R6) in the following race and has niggling worries that the filly will be fresh and sharp enough to drop back from the 1600m of the 1000 Guineas at Riccarton last start to today's 1400m of the Soliloquy Stakes. That is a concern, but the 1000 Guineas form behind Justa Tad is too good to dismiss. The widish draw is not perfect, but she's classy enough to be worth the risk.

Don't drop Velasco (No 3) for her failure last start - she was apparently pricked by the blacksmith leading into that Wellington Guineas and had shown real form in her previous run at Ellerslie. Also give Senorita Ivory (No 2) another chance.

If you get the trifecta in Race 7, the Balmerino Mercedes Derby Prelude, in the right order for $1 you are a genius. Emerging horses all over the place and the barrier draw at Ellerslie's tricky 2000m starting point complicates it further.

Able Standard (No 2) has done nothing wrong in winning his only two starts, fighting back doggedly after leading at Te Rapa last Sunday.

This comes up a bit quick after that race, but he looks the type to handle it and also the step to 2000m.

Cheval De Troy (No 7) has a horror barrier draw and in-form Mark Du Plessis has a real job on his hands. He was the early Derby favourite and his performance here in his first run beyond 1600m will define his chances in the big classic.

Jonathan Josh (No 1) is classy and if he gets the breaks he needs he has what it takes. Even if you miss the trifecta today, you are going to be a lot wiser about what to back in the Derby after this race is run.

Talented Sydney trainer Chris Waller put a big rap on his former horse St Jessie (No 6, R8) when asked for his opinion about her chances in her first New Zealand run. Waller believes she can win today's $50,000 Great Northern Challenge Stakes after a run of form in Australia. Her second under a big weight at Sandown in Melbourne two weeks ago was good enough to push her close to victory today, said Waller. Stablemates Millennium (No 1) and Belle Femme (No 7) look the main dangers. Belle Femme was heavily in season when beaten favourite at Otaki last start.

Savute (No 8, R9) is getting closer to another win. His seconds in recent starts have been solid and the step to 1400m should suit, even though the wide barrier is against him. Lenraad (No 1) is dropping back in class and should be improved by his first-up run. Included him in all multiple bets.

Lance O'Sullivan took a while to find his first winner, but the train is in runaway mode now and Buckle My Shoe (No 4, R10) should be another one batted to the fence. It was her first start in nine months when beaten first-up by Tadan on Melbourne Cup day and it is natural to assume she will be improved.