KEY POINTS:
Two things will be critical at Avondale today, the ability to get through heavy footing and to be able to run right to the finish.
This will not be a day for the powder puffs.
Red Bunting (No1, R7) deserves a turn after being badly denied a clear
path in the final stages at Ellerslie last start.
He has to carry 58kg, but that's not too far above the minimum in this race and he is dropping back in class from where he was racing a while ago.
Letsgoparty (No5, R8) is a great each-way prospect in what looks to be a mixed bunch in the R94 stayers' race. She won in similar grade two starts back and her third last time was not the worst. She will love these conditions.
Material Girl (No1. R2) has gone up a grade and up 1kg, but she handled similar conditions so well to win on this track last time that she deserves to be favourite again. Noel Harris' style of riding will help her carry her 58kg. Martini Time (No5) will handle the conditions.
There will be plenty of horses that failed at Tauranga last week that, because of track conditions, will turn that form around quickly.
Quest For Kash (No3, R3) could be one of them. She represents good class in the wet - don't forget her close third to Vegas Showgirl at Trentham three starts back - and this race looks well within her capabilities.
Wild Cat (No4, R5) is dropping back in class and as a two-time winner at Avondale rates highly. Dannielle Johnson's 4kg allowance will be critical in the footing.
Horses having their 22nd start in maiden class don't normally inspire confidence, but Baileys Comet (No1, R9) could get his turn today. His efforts have been pretty useful lately. Blixten (No2) gets to the line well and how important is that going to be today.
Some real value in the last could be Madam Lillie (No10, R10). She went a terrific race fresh from a break at Tauranga for her late trainer Leon Bunn then failed when second up.
She should be better here and Tasha Collett's 3kg claim will be very handy in a race that could throw up an outside result.