By MIKE DILLON
Searching for the roughie to chase home Sunline at Hastings this afternoon is the key to the country's premier race this weekend.
Getting a 20 to 1 chance into the trifecta is the best hope of landing a satisfactory punt on Sunline's attempt on the $150,000 Mudgway Partsworld Stakes.
It may not happen.
There is so much talent facing Sunline that a $20 trifecta is the likely outcome.
But you need to invest to accommodate that eventuality, at the same time laying a few trifecta dollars around to get a value runner into the 1,2,3 result.
You have to assume Sunline will win. She has never been bettered in New Zealand and has won all 10 career starts at today's 1400m.
That is a world-class statistic.
You also have to assume the track conditions will be no worse than easy. Surely the weather would not be that perverse to let us assume for the best all week then rain on Saturday afternoon, as was the suggestion yesterday. The weather is coming from the west and Hawkes Bay may be lucky enough to avoid the rain until after the meeting.
Cent Home, Leica Guv and La Bella Dama are musts to put in the trifecta result behind Sunline and the value horses, assuming the track is okay, are Conquistar, Hello Dolly and Pure Theatre.
Race 2 is interesting. If the footing is a genuine easy Burglar (No 7) is a real chance to win fresh from a spell. He looked good winning at the Te Teko trials and with give in the ground to cushion his dodgy legs he will be very competitive. The firmer the track the better the chances of My Happiness (No 1). She has a great record at Hastings, races well when fresh and is underrated. There are a few chances in this race and Fair Smokin (No 3) is another who could produce a big fresh-up effort.
The track has only to stay as it is for Danroad (No 1, R3) to be a certainty and fellow Cambridge galloper Dollarmore (No 1, R5) looks a good each-way bet off the back of a slight break from racing.
I've never been a fan of Uncle (No 2, R6), but against a field of mudders and wannabes he's in with a real chance. Oliverdance (No 3) is the class in the race, but he has yet to win one on firm or easy footing and will be looking for the predicted rain.
Albacora (No 3, R7) has had plenty of chances, but that was a fair effort she threw in for second at Riccarton last start. She and Eagar For Fun (No 5) are the each-way bets.
If the rain came the Zvezda (No 3, R9)-Fort Biloxi (No 7) quinella price will be milk money, but I've got a question on both if the track is decent. Both have class, but neither has won on anything but heavy footing. For that reason, on easy ground, I'm prepared to risk Singing Star (No 9) against them. She had a torrid time as a 3-year-old filly, but bounced back with a solid third last start at her second start back from a break and can be right in this.
The rain would make Irish Rover (No 2, R10) the best of the day and he may well be regardless. Forget his Winter Cup run at Riccarton last start where he was six wide throughout. Additionally, rider David Walker said he did not feel right in his action, which makes his fifth there outstanding. It is a good field though with Rodin (No 3) and Dawn Till Dusk right in it.
Class wins races which means Royal Ways (No 1, R6), Elevenses (No 1, R5) and Millennium (No 2, R7) to beat Cyclades (No 1) are the pick of the card at Ellerslie.
Lord Penn (No 1, R3) looks a good bet in the steeplechase.
In Melbourne, Mike Moroney's class mare Pernod (No 4, R7) looks a good bet against Takanini mare Zabeels Angel (No 10). Pernod is having her first start since finishing fifth, only one and a half lengths away, to Show A Heart in the Stradbroke Handicap in Brisbane. The 57kg looks a bit tough, but it is essentially on a 54kg minimum weight.
And, pay attention to Lonhro's effort in the Warwick Stakes in Sydney - he is Sunline's big threat in Australia this spring.
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