Racing: Phew, any of the nine runners could win

In thoroughbred racing 1kg is deemed to be worth a couple of lengths.

So you can make a case that Danz Star will be much more difficult for Surpriser Phew to beat in the Creative Spaces Mile at Ellerslie tomorrow.

Surpriser Phew had a neck advantage over Danz Star when the pair met at Te Rapa last start and this time the weight scale is 1kg in Danz Star's favour.

Add to that the fact that the Te Rapa run two weeks ago was his first start back following a spell and that his Cambridge trainer Tim Carter believes there has been significant improvement in the talented winter galloper.

Technically that should put the race in Danz Star's corner.

But technicalities rarely decide horse races.

The two variables this time are that the race is on a different track and that Surpriser Phew does only what is required to win.

You got the impression that as hard as Danz Star pushed at Te Rapa, Surpriser Phew had a little bit left.

This should be a great spectacle, particularly as the pair mentioned are by no means the only chances.

It's almost a cliche, but any one of the nine runners can win without causing an upset.

Danz Star is on trial for a look at the Winter Championship in Melbourne, a race New Zealand horses have a fair record in.

"I'm pretty serious about going over for it and I don't want to leave until July," said Carter.

"That gives me a chance to give him another race after this back at Ellerslie, then head over to Australia."

Surpriser Phew's jockey Vinny Colgan has at times been the regular rider of that horse and Danz Star.

Colgan and Carter discussed this race at a recent barrier trials meeting.

"Vinny didn't say a lot about his own horse, but he felt Danz Star was definitely going to be harder to beat this time."

Catherine Treymane was on Danz Star at Te Rapa and retains the mount.

Carter rates fellow Cambridge galloper Shanamann as a danger.

"He galloped with my horse The Guitar Man the other morning and I thought he worked very well. He seems to have come up very well."

Shanamann is a match for anything around when at peak. He has had one run back from a spell, finishing last in the Surpriser Phew race at Te Rapa, but is liable to improve quickly.

Another improver is Ring Of Fire, who finished fourth behind Surpriser Phew at Te Rapa.

His problem may be that he is a stayer and going back to 1600m at his second start, coupled with his preference for better footing, might see him struggle a little.

"He's heading for Australia after this run and he'll be better when he steps up over a middle distance," says co-trainer Donna Logan.

"There is rain forecast for Saturday and his best chance would be on loose, wet footing."

Ring Of Fire will run in the Tatt's Cup in Brisbane on June 24 then in the Caloundra Cup a week later.

The likes of All's Well, Leica Guv, Santoya, I Rock My World and Something Majic are all capable of winning.