KEY POINTS:
Lightly-raced sprinter Pencelaron is convincing trainer David Balfour with each start that the group one Goodwood Handicap could be the ideal race for him this autumn.
The 4-year-old, who has won three of his 11 starts, has been a steady improver through a light spring and summer campaign
and looks to have his best chance yet of posting a stakes win in today's RDA Victoria Stakes (1100m) at Flemington.
Coming off a last-start third to Publishing and Eskaw in the group three Standish Handicap at Flemington, the Peintre Celebre gelding was at $4.60 with TAB Sportsbet last night to record his first Victorian win.
Speedy filly Bel Mer, who is targeting the group one Lightning Stakes in two weeks, is the $3.20 favourite.
Balfour said Bel Mer could provide the hot pace Pencelaron needs to produce his best after he was unable to get cover and raced on the pace in the Standish.
Racing in blinkers for the first time, he shared the lead with Publishing for most of the race but had nothing left to give.
"Having his first start with blinkers last start it fired him up a little bit," Balfour said. "It was all new to him and facing the breeze he found it's a long way up that Flemington straight."
Balfour said if Bel Mer, as expected, led today it would give jockey Steven Arnold a chance to tuck Pencelaron away to make a late run.
"I would like to see him get in behind something and then finish the race off," Balfour said. "I think the penny is still dropping with him.
"He is still a pretty inexperienced horse and still learning, but he has plenty of ability.
"His work was terrific on Tuesday morning and I couldn't be happier with him."
Balfour said Pencelaron would be freshened after today with a view to resuming in the McKay Stakes (1100m) at Morphettville on March 29 and then tackle Adelaide's premier sprint, the Goodwood Handicap (1200m), on April 12.
Balfour won the Goodwood with Beau George in 1990.
"His main goal is the Goodwood and being on his home track it looks a nice race for him," Balfour said.
Balfour trained his first Melbourne winner in seven years when Li'l Cashy scored on protest at Caulfield on Boxing Day.
* The similarities between Umaquest, who won the Chester Manifold Stakes two years ago, and Redadan, who is trying to emulate the feat today, is not lost on Adelaide trainer Mark Minervini.
Minervini said that fitness was the key to Umaquest scoring an upset at $31 for him in the feature in 2006.
Redadan, also quoted at $31 in TAB Sportsbet markets, has had five runs this campaign which have brought him to his top heading into today's 1410m event.
"There is a bit of deja vu about going there," Minervini said. "There are a lot of similarities with the two horses as Umaquest was a mare who liked to race back in her races just like him [Redadan]," Minervini said.
"She was also down in the weights and had a few [five] runs before the Manifold."
- AAP