KEY POINTS:
Similar race, same main danger but one huge difference.
That is the equation facing South Auckland filly One Dream in tonight's A$75,000 ($83,000) Australian Oaks at Moonee Valley in Melbourne.
One Dream suffered a rare defeat in the Queensland Oaks two weeks ago, a race very similar to tonight's classic.
Once again One Dream has the front line draw to go forward and lead. And once again Sydney filly Dance Of Life is drawn to trail her and use the passing lane, which is how she beat One Dream in Brisbane.
So while that could be enough to give the connections of One Dream nightmares there is a crucial difference between the Queensland race and tonight - no Fleur De Lil.
The Queensland filly terrorised One Dream in front in the Queensland Oaks, leaving her a sitting duck for Dance Of Life.
But Fleur De Lil's trainer Luke McCarthy has elected to miss tonight's race to prepare for the Australasian Breeders Crown in a month.
Which means tonight's race is unlikely to have anything like the mid-race pressure exerted two weeks ago. It does contain a horse every bit as good as Fleur De Lil in NSW Oaks winner Miss Hazel, but she is a speed filly not suited to the bully role.
All of which suggests One Dream can get her campaign back on a winning keel tonight.
After starting the season looking unbeatable she has lost that aura after two defeats by brave Pukekohe rival Running On Faith before the Queensland loss.
If she leads tonight and doesn't win it will be a shock and another costly blow for many punters.
