Like Marsh, fellow Cambridge trainer Andrew Forsman knows about winning derbies and thinks his Full Of Sincerity is a talented stayer in the making, but realises the enormity of the task.
“I really like my horse long-term but he is still very much maturing whereas the favourite won a Group1 weight-for-age race last start and has beaten good horses in Australia,” says Forsman. “Derbies can be funny races but he will be very hard to beat.”
Recent Derby kings Andrew Scott and Lance O’Sullivan share the same level of hope without confidence with their three runners headlined by Waitak while another multiple Derby-winning trainer in Roger James summed up the class of the favourite after he withdrew Prowess on Tuesday.
“She might have got away with 2400m in a weak Derby but with Sharp ‘N’ Smart there this won’t be a weak Derby,” said James.
A trainer who thinks he can beat even the best version of Sharp ‘N’ Smart is Peter Williams, co-trainer of Avondale Guineas winner Desert Lightning.
“He is a classy animal and will be hard to beat but if we didn’t think we had a chance of beating him we wouldn’t be starting,” offers Williams.
“Our horse has done everything right since his last win and he is spot on. As good as we can have him.”
Desert Lightning has been a consistent force in our best three-year-old races (2000 Guineas, Karaka Mile) this season and has beaten Legarto and Prowess.
He hasn’t beaten Sharp ‘N’ Smart yet though, although no horse in tomorrow’s Derby has.
But Desert Lightning came from behind Waitak to down him in the Avondale Guineas over 2100m two weeks ago, so he should run out the 2400m and could be the biggest danger.
Whether that means he, or any of his other rivals, can run past Sharp ‘N’ Smart probably has less to do with how they perform and whether the best version of the favourite turns up at Te Rapa tomorrow.
If it does, and there is no reason to expect it won’t, then this is Sharp ‘N’ Smart’s Derby to lose.
Best bets on Derby Day
1. BABYLON BERLIN (R3, No 2) - Finds herself in the perfect race after running second to Imperatriz and Levante in our three biggest sprints in her last three starts.
Because this race is set weights and penalties she isn’t penalised for that hot form and the biggest names aren’t here. Your multi anchor.
2. SHARP ‘N’ SMART (R8, No 1) - Take the hype of a Derby away and look at the facts. The second-best multi anchor of the day.
3. MAVEN BELLE (R5, No 2) - The juvenile of the year last term whose only defeat since coming back was behind Imperatriz, Babylon Berlin and Levante in the Group 1 wfa sprint here last start. For good measure, she beat home La Crique in that.
She meets some high-class three-year-olds but nobody that could have done what she did last start.
4. TARTED UP (R10, No 13) - In two of her last three starts she has run the fastest last 200m in good fields, including quicker than winner Maven Belle three starts ago.
She gets a good draw to sit handy to what should be a suitably solid speed to allow her to unwind late which is how she likes to roll. Her $6.50 quote is nice each-way value.
5. FASHION SHOOT (R2, No 1) - Has been producing huge races in better fields, including second in a hot R75 here last start from which the fourth and fifth placed horses have both since won.
She has a huge finishing kick and after scratchings should start from barrier 10, which will suit her racing style and plenty of the other favourites have drawn wider. Te Rapa can play up-and-in early but this looks her right race.
