KEY POINTS:
There was a longer pause than usual before Ballymore Stable manager Paul Moroney answered his cellphone yesterday.
It wasn't long before you understood why.
Moroney is not at Otaki supervising supervising Jokers Wild going into today's $200,000 Levin Classic, he is in England.
And it was 3.25am.
Moroney's
quiet response was not entirely from being woken from a dead sleep - before going to bed he'd seen on the internet the New Zealand forecast for the lower North Island today - rain.
But it is not his concern, brother Mike Moroney has travelled from Melbourne and will be in charge of whether Jokers Wild runs if the track becomes severely rain-affected later this afternoon.
"The only cheerful thought about the weather forecast is that it is tipping very strong winds. Hopefully the wind will blow the weather away."
Last start Jokers Wild was beaten into second in the 2000 Guineas at Riccarton, many believing the rain-affected footing was responsible.
There is no doubt Jokers Wild would have appreciated a very firm surface, but what counted against him most was that the footing changed the pattern of the race to see horses swooping wide on the home bend and coming down the outside of the track.
That allowed horses either side of the on-pace Jokers Wild and it made it much tougher for him to hold out the opposition in the final 100m and Magic Cape, who had enjoyed cover against a fierce head wind, grabbed him late.
Firm footing can suit on-pace runners at Otaki and if the rain stays away it will take an exceptional performance to topple the favourite.
The betting on the group one race will turn upside down if Jokers Wild comes out - yesterday he was at $1.90 with 1000 Guineas winner Dorabella at $7 and Santagostino at $8.
* Chief TAB bookie Paul Lally said even the anticipation of rain has seen a change of direction in betting.
"We've been getting a lot of money today for Keep The Message, obviously people thinking he's going to be suited if the track is wet.
"We've got him at $16 at the moment and it wouldn't surprise me if he started favourite if Jokers Wild was scratched.
"It's crazy.
"Obviously there would be a significant deduction in the final field odds on horses like Keep The Message if the favourite doesn't run."
Lally said either today or tomorrow the TAB will open futures betting on races like the Auckland Cup and Derby, the City Of Auckland Cup, the Railway and the Great Northern Guineas.