Racing: Mare peaking at just the right time for cup victory

A 99274 formline is nothing to get excited about, but Mistrale holds the key to today's $100,000 Rotorua Cup.

The talented Cambridge mare is peaking at the right time to be a formidable opponent against a field with at least six genuine winning chances.

Mistrale's talents fit the specs required for this race: she can take a sit and sprint quickly from anywhere in the field.

Having been trained up for this 2300m, she raced a little too dour for 2000m at Te Rapa last start. Trainer Murray Baker believes the mare has recently settled down in training after being a little too keen in her work and rider Linsey Hofmann has previously won on her.

Bodie has been a while away from winning, but has looked as though he's been getting close lately. If he'd been anywhere near close to the inside running rail rather than the outside rail in the Hawkes Bay Gold Cup, he would have gone close to winning. He did remarkably well to finish sixth given the extra ground he covered.

Rotorua is very much a horses-for-courses track and Bodie has the market covered there - from three starts there he has won this race two years ago and been placed on the other two occasions. Even with 57kg, look for Bodie to be running into the race at some stage of the home straight.

Aeroforce One might be a risk on Rotorua because of his size, but he is too good to leave out of multiples and Madame Shinko is the upsetter.

Pay The Believers (No 5, R4) turned in a performance that deserved a winning stake at Avondale recently. He worked hard from an outside barrier to sit parked, went to the lead early in the home straight and was still beaten a long neck by Star Of Riop, who had enjoyed the trail and who subsequently won in open company at Te Rapa last weekend. Although it should provide perfect footing for most, the Rotorua track will have at least a small amount of yield, the type of footing Pay The Believers prefers. On the horses-for-courses basis alone Illicitly (No 7) rates highly - she is unbeaten in two starts at Rotorua.

In the lesser races, few 3-year-olds made the impression of Samurai (No 2, R5) in the spring. His two wins from five starts had an air of authority about them and he continually gave the impression he was going to be a better horse with a bit of time. He was spelled in October and is making a fresh start today. A recent barrier trial win at Otaki showed he had the level of fitness required to be very competitive in his first start back. He won fresh last campaign and has an inside draw. Difficult to find a negative. Against opposition of the class of Savute, Vamperalla (No 3) was never a chance once she got back in the field at Te Rapa last start. It might pay to forget that run her first for three months. She has the speed to lead when asked for it and can produce plenty of fight the type of horse that can be difficult to pick up at Rotorua. Include her in multiples. If she jumps cleanly she will give a good sight.

Sandcastle (No 5, R3) did not get all the breaks when third at Hastings last start and might otherwise have gone close to winning. Hayden Tinsley has stayed with the 3-year-old and he will have the job of finding him the right passage from his awkward No 12 barrier. If Sandcastle gets a nice smother, he should finish off well. Yeah Right (No 6) and Joe Dirt (No 2) are handy maidens.

The Dynamo (No 3, R8) races a bit one-paced, but it is a pretty pace and on his day he doesn't lack the go-forward to maintain it. He's probably not an everyday horse, but he will be suited here if he gets away with a cheeky lead. The opposition is pretty talented. Medit King (No 2) is better than his paper form reads and Apowwow (No 4) has hit some solid form. Both are previous winners at Rotorua, a very significant factor.

You would probably have liked to see Kainui Belle (No 4, R9) finish a touch closer behind Mr Multiwin when resuming at Te Rapa last start, but part of that was because Cameron Lammas used his initiative in attempting to pocket the winner on the home bend. It meant he had to press the button a touch early and, overall, Kainui Belle's run for fourth was satisfactory. This race will tell if she is coming back to her very best and if she is, then she wins this race. For a while early in the home straight Santoya (No 5) looked like she was going to cause the upset of the year in the $100,000 Japan/NZ Trophy at Tauranga last start. Her third to Calveen was still a superb effort, even though she carried just 51.5kg and she lobs into this with a real winning hope. Abit Rusty (No 1) does not know how to run a bad race and the level weights suit after carrying 56kg to victory at Trentham.

It took a pretty useful type in Platinum Place to run down Tony The Pony (No 1, R10) at Te Aroha last start. He is good in front and while stepping from 1400m to 1900m gives cause to a little concern, if he is going to get away with it anywhere it will be at Rotorua. He deserves a win in light of his overall efforts lately.