Remember what the weather was like on February 21, 1975? No, and neither does anyone else.
With the exception, that is, of Ken Ring, who studies such things for a living.
Ring is a former official meteorologist who is rapidly becoming something of a cult figure for his long-range weather
predictions.
A long way out, everyone wanted to know what the eve of the Millennium would be like.
Low cloud, steamy, light misty rain, remember?
Well, Ring accurately predicted that six months out.
The people at the MetService do their job by looking at a satellite picture of today's weather and predicting what it will do for tomorrow.
If you follow racing, and therefore need to be aware of accurate track conditions, you will know that has a similar success rate to topweights in the Melbourne Cup.
Ring uses lunar cycles.
There are 12 of them, he says, none inter-related.
He does a mathematical calculation of how the 12 cycles line up on, say, December 15, looks back in history as far as 1948 when necessary to when the 12 cycles framed an identical pattern, and uses the weather that day for his prediction.
It could be as far back as 14 or 15 years.
Before we go further, Ring has predicted fine weather from today through until December 27-28, which means a great relief for the connections of $500,000 Mercedes Derby runners and in particular the hot favourite, Cheval De Troy.
He also predicts substantial rain in Auckland on December 31, not only the eve of the New Year but also the eve of the $350,000 New Zealand Herald Auckland Cup at Ellerslie.
Which will not be welcome news for some of the runners in the Cup and in New Zealand's premier 1200m sprint, the $200,000 Railway Stakes.
Ring has been given an accuracy count of 85 per cent to 95 per cent by various groups.
"Farmers form a solid base for my business and they give me a 95 per cent rating.
"St Cuthbert's [College in Auckland] did a three-month study of my work and came up with 85 per cent accuracy."
Ring allows for a couple of variables. "The historical data that I've bought on weather patterns back to 1948 was traditionally taken at the airports around the country, so the closer you are to an airport, the more accurate my predictions will be.
"There are small microclimates around the country that can make results vary."
Ring prefers not to quantify rain, although he predicts around 25mm on New Year's Eve.
"I also like to have a day's grace either side."
Couples looking to set a wedding date are good customers and his Predict Weather Almanac is a big seller.
Ring has been doing spasmodic spots with Kevin Black on Solid Gold radio, but has become so popular that from January he will have a weekly Wednesday slot.
He will be even more popular with the likes of Cheval De Troy's co-trainer Colin Jillings if he is on the money for Boxing Day.
Cheval De Troy proved in the Mercedes Bonecrusher Stakes at Ellerslie last Sunday that he has the edge on his Derby rivals in ability.
Rain is the only factor that could alter that balance.
Remember what the weather was like on February 21, 1975? No, and neither does anyone else.
With the exception, that is, of Ken Ring, who studies such things for a living.
Ring is a former official meteorologist who is rapidly becoming something of a cult figure for his long-range weather
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.