Racing: Luck of the draw at last for Merlin

Merlin. Photo / Supplied

New Zealand’s unluckiest barrier draw horse had to secure a good draw one day and Merlin has found the perfect race to finally get some luck.

That luck makes him the horse to beat in tonight’s $135,000 Northern Derby at Alexandra Park.

The Derby is the highlight of Auckland’s biggest harness racing meeting in months, with four other group races, including the Northern Oaks.

The Oaks feature will more than likely be dominated by unbeaten filly Millwood Nike.

The Derby looked far more open after Sherlock won the major lead-up last Friday, suggesting he has closed the gap on Merlin, but that gap may have reopened after the barrier draw.

Merlin will start from barrier two while key rivals Sherlock and Son Of Mac face second-line draws, and remarkably it is the first time in 13 starts Merlin has drawn inside barrier five.

To make matters worse, often when he has drawn barriers five or six it has been in small fields, so he has been on the outside of the front line. Three times he has drawn barrier eight and on three others the second line.

So to finally get a good draw is great news for Merlin, but bad news for Sherlock and Son Of Mac.

Driver Zachary Butcher says the draw means he doesn’t have to think too much.

“It is about time we got a good draw and I am confident we can lead and then have options,” says Butcher.

“One of those could be to hand up to Sooner The Better and take a trail but we could even stay in front because I know our horse will be better for the run last week.”

Taking the shortest way home, Merlin should win the Derby and Sooner The Better looms as the best place bet, even though Sherlock gets stronger with every run and could still prevail if the Derby gets turned upside down early.

The Oaks looks a benefit for Millwood Nike, not only because she is better than her opponents but because Kahlua Flybye is scratched and Advance Party has a wide draw.

Trainers Barry Purdon and Scott Phelan will dominate the two-year-old races before the big boys of pacing get together for the first time in 2023 in the City Of Auckland Free-For-All.

Copy That, Self Assured, Akuta, Old Town Road and rising speedster Nicholas Cage are already guaranteed spots in the $1 million The Race at Cambridge on April 14 and with that in mind tonight’s race could be devoid of aggression after the early burn.

Copy That looks the most likely leader and therefore the most likely winner, with the connections of many of the other favourites suggesting tonight won’t be the night they go looking to make a statement.

Three Alex Park picks

Best: Merlin (R7, No 2): Looks his Derby to lose from the draw, even if early value is gone.

Next best: Copy That (R9, No 2): Looks back to something like his best and could be the leader in a race lacking pressure.

Class act: Double Delight (R3, No 7): Even off 25m she is better off here than in recent races in which she has produced two huge seconds.