KEY POINTS:
The dream bet of a week ago has now become a potential nightmare for punters.
Heading into the first leg of the autumn pacing fillies' double at Addington last Saturday there were no doubts Lizzie Maguire was the best of her class and a guaranteed favourite every time
she went to the races.
But a lacklustre sixth in the Nevele R Fillies Final, won so brilliantly by Badlands Jewel, has changed all that.
Which leaves tonight's $150,000 New Zealand Oaks as one of the most open in recent memory - at least six winning chances with several others capable of a major upset.
Trainer Gareth Dixon was the first to admit he was disappointed by Lizzie Maguire last Saturday and his confidence in gaining some revenge wouldn't have been bolstered by the flying filly drawing one on the second line tonight.
Lizzie Maguire still looks the best of her crop but she will now need luck on her side as well as the tempo of the race to suit.
She still looks the horse to beat, with 2600m classics at Addington tending to be run fast enough to ensure all runners get a fair crack. But punters would want at least $3.75, maybe even $4 to be getting any value about her.
The dangers come in the shape of Badlands Jewel, Eyecatcher Courage and Kiwi Ingenuity, with plenty more lurking.
Badlands Jewels was too good last Saturday - recovering from a home bend check to make up many lengths - for the performance to be a fluke.
She looks certain to handle the extra distance tonight and a hot pace will see her hard to beat again.
The each way value may lie with Eyecatcher Courage, who did herself no favours last Saturday.
She also copped a slight check on the home bend but was then reluctant to come wide on the track when driver Tony Herlihy wanted to.
"I think she would have gone close had she run straight," said Herlihy.
"We have a better barrier this week and I rate her a chance." From barrier two Eyecatcher Courage has the gate speed to go forward and then take a sit on the right rival. If she is still keen to run inward up the straight at least she will have the passing lane in which to exercise that tendency.
She looks set to do less work than her rivals and is a good value chance.
The big improver in the fillies ranks in the last month has been Kiwi Ingenuity, who downed Badlands Jewels in record time in the Southland Oaks.
She sat parked before running a strong third last Saturday and will not need to list her performance levels much to be a winning chance, although she too will need luck from the second line.
Natal Franco looks another who will appreciate the 2600m while the Purdon pair of Lady Dancer and Fight Fire With Fire are other chances.
Lady Dancer was poor after having the perfect trail last Saturday but maybe be better driven off the speed while Fight Fire With Fire was outstanding after setting the hot pace last week and only being grabbed in the last stride.
OAKS PUZZLE
* Lizzie Maguire's shock defeat at Addington last week has thrown tonight's New Zealand Oaks wide open.
* The fine filly faces a second line draw and will be at her best odds of the season.
* Fellow northerner Eyecatcher Courage, Kiwi Ingenuity and Badlands Jewel all appeal as winning hopes.
* Tonight's meeting also host the $200,000 Sires' Stakes Final for the 2-year-old pacers.
MAIN HOPES
$3.20 Badlands Jewels; $4.50 Lizzie Maguire; $7.50 Kiwi Ingenuity; $9 Eyecatcher Courage; $10 Lady Dancer; $12 Fight Fire With Fire; $18 Party Girl Becqui.