KEY POINTS:
It is put up or shut up time for Lizzie Maguire in the freshman fillies' Harness Jewels today.
All season, the South Auckland juvenile speedster has threatened to do something special but, when the big money has been up, Susie Maguire and Exotic Lover have outshone her.
Now,
in the most important race of the season, she has the best draw of the favoured runners and trainer Gareth Dixon knows the time for excuses are gone.
"If they beat us this week then they are simply better," said Dixon, who also has Haylin Express in the race.
When the favoured trio met in the Sires' Stakes Final last start, Lizzie Maguire had to settle for third but was every bit as impressive as the other pair after sitting parked.
"She has had some excuses most of the way through the season but she doesn't this week.
"Taking a line through their performances in the Sires' Stakes, and the draws they have this week, I think my filly should be close to favourite.
"After all, Susie Maguire has to cover more ground than we do so if she beats us this week then she is just too good.
"If Lizzie had her draw (eight) I'd say we had no chance."
Lizzie Maguire has high gate speed but Dixon realises she may have to work hard to get past the two fillies drawn inside her as they are stablemates of Susie Maguire.
That sets up the possibility of a fast first half to the race which would suit Exotic Lover, who has a huge finishing kick.
Susie Maguire has looked the best of this crop so far but has been blessed with good draws. From barrier eight today, she is going to need luck but at least a hot pace would negate her tendency to pull hard.
Dixon says if the race becomes a slog then the gap between Lizzie Maguire and Haylin Express will close.
"Working the two of them, you wouldn't think Haylin Express was in Lizzie's class. But she is a real stayer and, if it gets tough out there, she could surprise."
Dixon is thrilled with the form of St Barts heading into the 3-year-old male pace but says his charge can't win from the draw.
"I have never had this horse better but you can't do any work when you are taking on Changeover, Montecito and Gotta Go Cullen."