KEY POINTS:
After months of guesswork with mum-to-be Justa Tad, co-trainer Megan Liefting can finally get crystal-clear answers at Ellerslie today.
With a positive test to Storming Home now confirmed, Liefting's former Filly of the Year is at a career crossroads in the Lindauer 25th Anniversary Stakes.
If Justa Tad
performs up to the level Liefting knows she can, the glamour mare books a racetrack farewell chasing more black-type glory, in the Counties, and possibly also the Avondale Cup.
But if she disappoints again today - against what is arguably the weakest group-level clash of her life - Liefting admits it could be the 5-year-old's last race before she's retired to the matron's paddock.
"We would have to seriously think about pulling the pin if she didn't win this," said Liefting.
"We're certainly hoping for a good run; it's not what you'd call an overly strong field."
Liefting, who has sole charge of saddling Justa Tad while husband and training partner Rudy sets up their Melbourne satellite operation, says motherhood seems to be agreeing with their stable star.
Smiling Like and Lashed are two recent examples of what carrying a foal can do for a racemare. Smiling Like was expecting when she won the 2000 New Zealand and 2001 Wellington Cups, while Lashed was a fierce weight-for-age force a couple of seasons back after a date with Zabeel.
"She's as cranky as ever; if anything she's even more cranky which is a good sign for her," said Liefting.
While the opposition may not be up to some fields Justa Tad has beaten, for Liefting a fifth group win today would still rank as one of mare's most satisfying.
Critics have been quick to knock the horse, who hasn't won since beating Prize Lady in the 2005 New Zealand Oaks at Trentham.
But Liefting says Justa Tad has had her excuses while racking up group-level Australian placings in the AJC Oaks and the Underwood Stakes in the interim.
"I think she's been trying too hard," said Liefting. "She's an intelligent horse and she thought she knew better than the jockey.
"She was undone by over-racing in races like the St George and the Underwood. That's why we were originally going to keep her at 1600m.
"Now she's relaxing more, we feel she's ready to try 2000m again."
Cambridge apprentice Patrick Holmes replaces Matamata Cup pilot Vinny Colgan as a reward for faultless displays aboard Justa Tad in her first two runs back this season.
Holmes was aboard when Justa Tad resumed with a close-up fourth at Ellerslie over 1400m and again when making a late-charge for third in Pentaine's Evans Classic over 1670m at Paeroa.
Liefting believes Colgan and Justa Tad simply got too far back last time out from the inside gate at Matamata.
From the six barrier today, she's confident Holmes can get Justa Tad a lot handier and avoid a repeat of being trapped on the paint.
Liefting's major concern today is Justa Tad's month-long gap between her races.
"Patrick came up from Cambridge to give her a good hit-out so hopefully that will help."
Fiscal Madness is the main danger to Justa Tad's chances of returning to the winner's circle.
He ran a distant fourth in Cheval de Troy's Bonecrusher Stakes in his last attempt over 2000m at Ellerslie before failing in the New Zealand Derby the same season.
But new trainer John Sargent says the Volksraad gelding is a lot more relaxed in this campaign.
Sargent is also excited about the chances of stablemate Sharvasti in the Lindauer Brut Carbine Club 1600m, despite the sharp rise in class.
"We also accepted at Trentham with her but if we want to have a go at the Avondale and Counties Cups she's better off getting used to going that way round. Like the rest of the family she's taken time to mature."
Closer to home
* Ellerslie features 10 on-course races and live coverage from Flemington today.
* There's also a fashion competition and a post-race party.
* Gates open at 10.30am, and the Melbourne Cup field is set to get away at 5pm.