Lance Justice's chances of scaring his way to New Zealand Cup glory received a massive blow with last night's inclusion of a 100-1 chance in the race.
Canterbury pacer Bondy has been forced out of the great race with a blood complaint, which allows rank outsider Special Ops into the
cup.
But under an archaic rule, her inclusion on the front line means Smoken Up, one of the cup favourites who was supposed to start from the outside of the front line, will now be pushed back to the inside of the second line.
That is potentially a huge blow to the outstanding stayer, who trainer-driver Justice was hoping could roll to the front early from a wide draw.
"The inside of the second is the worst draw we could have got," said Justice. "I'm very disappointed."
Smoken Up, who has had only two standing starts, now starts behind fast beginner Bettors Strike and Justice is hoping he can still get into clear air early enough to send his star toward the lead.
If he does that he thinks the legion of crazy Australian reinsmen who have come to New Zealand before him could help Smoken Up scare his way toward cup victory.
A former Cambridge pacer, Smoken Up has developed into the rock other Australian open-class pacers break themselves against in recent seasons.
More often than not he leads or sits parked, looks beaten then fights back to win. He might not have the outright speed of the Kiwis in today's classic but he loves to grind that out of his rivals and Justice knows the giant Addington track will be a blessing.
"On most of the tracks over home he struggles around the home bend, they get close to him and then he fights back," he explains.
"But on this track I think he will be able to get a head of steam up and keep going." The best place to use that talent would be from in front but getting there from the outside of the front line could be tricky with so many superstars drawn inside him.
And that is where Justice is counting on the fear many Kiwi drivers have of their Australian opponents.
It is not fear as in the New Zealanders thinking the Australians are better drivers, quite the opposite.
For decades, many Kiwi drivers have thought the Australians were all mad. It is a reputation forged on the smaller tracks in Australia where leading at all costs is often the only tactic.
It means Australian drivers are naturally more aggressive than most of their transtasman rivals.
"I think it is a factor whether people want to admit it or not.
"I am almost counting on it. If I can get clear early and I decide to go forward I think I will get the lead or at least parked because your drivers know us guys [Australians] just keep going.
"If I do that, he will be hard to beat because he is in the best form of his life," said Justice.
Smoken Up has recovered from a tough landing in Christchurch last Wednesday which originally worried Justice. "He worked awesome yesterday [Sunday] and he is 110 per cent.
"I was worried last Thursday but when he worked yesterday he wanted to kill somebody."
Smoken Up and Karloo Mick look the best of the four Aussies in the Cup, although Washakie showed enough at the Interdominions in March to suggest he can place.
That leaves Be Good Johnny, who is a wonderful pacer but is now a 10-year-old and has always been at his best in sprint races so could struggle over 3200m.
But with a New Zealand defence led by Kiwi Ingenuity, Monkey King and Changeover as well as international star Mr Feelgood, this is shaping as one of the great cups of the past 20 years.
NZ CUP DAY
What: New Zealand's biggest harness racing meeting.
Where: Addington, Christchurch.
When: First race 11.50am, cup at 5.15pm.
Highlights: $1 million NZ Trotting Cup, $200,000 Sires' Stakes Final, $100,000 NZ Trotting Free-For-All.
The stars: The cup runners, Auckland Reactor in the junior free-for-all, Sovereignty in the big trot and Kotare Mach in the Sires' Stakes.
The punt: Final field betting on all 12 races, $50,000 Pick6 starting 3.20pm and quaddie starting 4.35pm.
The certainty: Auckland Reactor (R4).
The short odds: Highview Tommy (R3).
Something longer: Musgrove (R1).
Watch: Trackside (Sky digital channel 35) from 11.30am.
SMOKEN GUNS
Smoken Up heads a four-strong Australian assault on the New Zealand Cup.
His recent form has been outstanding.
His chances have taken a blow after he was relegated to the second line.
This could aid Karloo Mick and Kiwi Ingenuity.
Former Cambridge pacer Smoken Up leads a powerful Australian assault on the cup today. Photo / Gary Wild
Lance Justice's chances of scaring his way to New Zealand Cup glory received a massive blow with last night's inclusion of a 100-1 chance in the race.
Canterbury pacer Bondy has been forced out of the great race with a blood complaint, which allows rank outsider Special Ops into the
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