KEY POINTS:
Four of the legs of today's $1 million Pick6 at the Taumarunui Racing Club meeting at Te Rapa are so nightmarishly wide open that it forces you to find an anchor or something close to it.
There isn't an anchor in the traditional sense, but the Taumarunui Cup
is one race you could perhaps try for it in, and the last leg, race 10, offers the only other hope of going skinny.
There is a sense of timing for Jovial Jock around the $65,000 Taumarunui Cup. His form has been very solid if you delete his last-start fourth at Ruakaka during which he hung significantly.
That was out of character for Jovial Jock and trainers Roger and Darrel Lang are confident there will be no repeat in this race.
The key is probably going to be the 53.5kg, a dangerous 3.5kg below joint topweights and leading chances Figure Of Speech and Miles.
If you were sure it was going to be an on-pace pattern at Te Rapa today you'd definitely have Miles in the mix, but he might struggle if it's not.
Weight and all, Figure Of Speech (No1) is the horse to beat.
If you took just him and Jovial Jock (No8) you wouldn't be too far away.
Everyone likes to go into the last leg with as many horses as possible, but to do that you have to get over the earlier legs - and to do that you are going to have to go wide there. Better to take the chance in the last leg.
Who's Asking (No2) is not a traditional anchor, but if you had to stand him alone it's not the worst risk.
He is a horse going places and it was a hugely gutsy performance to win narrowly against good company at New Plymouth last week. If you wanted to take a couple around him, Laughing Girl (No1) and Teepeem (No6) will give you a good cover.
Laughing Girl was stylish winning at Pukekohe last start. As the winner of five races she is well placed in this field and Shannon Doyle takes 2kg off her 58kg to take her back to the minimum weight.
Leg 1, the 1600m maiden is a stinker. Devonport Magic (No13) went an improver's race for fourth, albeit beaten five lengths, at Pukekohe last time and Lisa Cropp gets into the saddle for this. Kitty Milagro (No11) has been well tried, but she keeps getting to the line strongly and that's probably a key element today.
Sand Hawk (No2) has had his chances, but won't get many better opportunities than this. This race alone could just about guarantee at least a partial jackpot of the $1 million.
Inyou can pretty much forget Floor Play (No3, R6) who went around at Trentham last start. The shocking state of the track and the race pattern did not suit his on-pace tactics. He should have won at Te Awamutu the time before and this race will suit.
Again there is a huge array of chances. Waitui Belle (No16) appeals. She has been racing in tougher fields than this and will be well suited if the up-front horses are getting a fair crack. La Velista (No14), The Saddler (No9), Katy Keen (No1), Matthew (No4) and Anood Prospect (No7) can all win.
For those on a limited spend, Volitant (No8, R8) and Post Romance (No7) will give you cover. Both looked good last start. For those going wider Dan's Best (No13) is the best value and Bert (No5), I Can Sing (No4), North Cape (No10) and Cool Magic (No2) are strong chances.
There are so many chances in Race 9, it's scary. You simply can't narrow it down to a couple.
Taking The Mickey (No4) has the form background to make him a chance, having been placed four times from six starts on this track. Kurosawa (No16) looked an improver with her fourth at Pukekohe last start and could represent some real value here. Kings Of Leon (No6), On The Bar (No9), Waicou Wasp (No11), Pose For Me (No3) and Yourhavinmeon (No12) are horses you almost certainly need and the chances don't end there.
This is almost a TAB conspiracy to guarantee a $2 million Pick6 at Riccarton next Saturday.
Taumarunui the jackpot club
Thirty-five years after it hosted the biggest on-course jackpot ever and 10 years after hosting the first $1 million gallops Pick6, the Taumarunui Racing Club will again today host a $1 million pool.
In the early 70s, the zero commission on-course jackpots raised a lot of excitement, none more so than the $831,564 pool at Taumarunui on July 29, 1972.
Then on July 26, 1997, after a succession of jackpots, Taumarunui was the first thoroughbred club to offer a guaranteed Pick6 pool of $1 million.
If today's Pick6 is not struck, the new season will start off with a mammoth pool on Winter Cup day at Riccarton next Saturday.
Results of the eight previous gallops Pick6s of $1 million or more. Two were not struck:
* Saturday September 2, 2006, Hastings $1 million guaranteed:
3 Giovanni $3.65, 3 Cedar Manor $1.90, 1 Arlingtonboulevard $5.20, 12 Seachange $5.40, 1 Dancing Song $30.20, 11 Kay's Awake $4.90.
Result: 15.98 units picked up $64,313.05 each.
* Saturday August 6, 2005, Riccarton $1 million:
4 Quantum Classic $64.25, 2 No Hero $1.85, 7 Coup Biscuit $5.60, 4 Don't Ya Lovett $3.85, 12 Texas $15.20, 2 Miles $3.50.
Result: 2.10 units picked up $591,930.95 each.
* Saturday October 9, 2004, Ellerslie $2 million:
7 Iflooxcouldkill $6.50, 10 Melba $4.85, 5 Empyreal $3.50, 13 Waltermitty $9.10, 13 Megabucks $6.05, 13 Mandana $3.60.
Result: 77.16 units picked up $25,920.15 each.
* Saturday October 2, 2004, Hastings $1 million:
8 Shastri $15.30, 10 Waitoki Dream $1.70, 1 Balmuse $20.80, 6 Last Claim $18.85, 6 Green Machine $8.65, 4 Sing in the Sun $4.80.
Result: Not struck.
* Saturday February 7, 2004, Te Rapa $1 million:
1 Taatletail $5.05, 3 Fountain Abbey $9.20, 10 Lashed $3.45, 2 Baloney $9.95, 1 Sedecrem $3.55, 12 Avegas $19.60.
Result: 4.48 units picked up $223,214.25 each.
* Saturday December 20, 2003, Awapuni $2 million:
5 Sovereign $10.15, 9 Royal Secret $3.95, 5 Rising Heights $10.70, 11 Identity $4.30, 3 Doyle $19.25, 2 Madison Gray $13.60.
Result: 7.66 units picked up $261,096 each.
* Saturday December 13, 2003, Te Rapa $1 million:
3 Sokool $13.15, 9 Upsetthym $7.75, 1 El Duce $8.15, 7 Swallow $7.45, 7 Elianto $12.70, 1 Stathis $12.65.
Result: Not struck.
* Saturday July 26, 1997, Te Rapa $1 million:
5 Ubetcha $4.60, 1=5 Sir James=Adonia $1.80=$4.75, 4 Elfa Leather $5.55, 7 Bens Gold $13.25, 9 Tabuki Thunder $7.35, 2 Sovereign Robe $9.30.
Result: 15 units picked up $66,666.65