KEY POINTS:
Those who say Pick6s are easy are probably the same folk who have a genuine understanding of tactics in the Tour de France.
Pick6s are notoriously difficult, which is why there is a jackpotted $400,000 at New Plymouth today.
Wet tracks are what make Pick6s impossible - every
winter track is different, in fact, more different these days than they used to be.
To give yourself any chance the word "anchor" has to rear its head and with it comes its own special fear.
There might be a couple of potential anchors in this Pick6 in the form of two northerners Indikator and Avaroadi.
Indikator (No2 R9) inlooks perhaps the better of the two.
The only negative is the fourth placing at Tauranga that Indikator threw in last start. It wasn't a particularly bad run, but it was a fraction less than expected. His previous form had been first class and he could be given the benefit of the doubt that the footing may not have been ideal.
You would not want this track to further deteriorate overnight and for that reason topweight Material Girl (No1) could be seen as a bit of insurance. Who's Asking (No6) was bogged down on the inside when beaten favourite at Pukekohe last start and looks a value runner.
First leg:
Chatter Box (No1) is an absolute must. Her form is terrific considering she has not been able to draw a decent barrier in her last four races. She has drawn off again and that is always a worry with an inexperienced apprentice aboard, but the 4kg Johannah Smellie pulls from the 58kg will play a big part late in the race.
This is a tough leg to get over. Allan Sharrock's pair King Of Dreams (No7) and Artique (No5) are right in the race and there are five or six more you could make a case for.
Second leg:
Very strong here on Avaroadi (No2) if he starts in preference to the Opunake Cup. The key is the left-handed track - five of his six wins have been left-handed and his 58074 five-month formline does not include a leftie. He is an underrated horse at best, has won at New Plymouth and will cope well with the track. He's not the worst $30 each-way chance in the big race either. In his absence Star Of The Ball (No1) and Daraldo (No3) are musts. Star Of The Ball is a winner on the course and comes in well at 55kg with a claim. Dance By (No5) must rate even though going up in class.
Third leg:
The problem horse is Praise The Lord (No1). He bolted past an open handicap field at Otaki, ran third in the Hawkes Bay Hurdles then flopped at Trentham last week. That could have been because of the terribly heavy, sticky track that trapped a few on the day. If he reproduces his Otaki run he'd win this even with 59kg so you have to include him. Securitas (No5) is another must. His form has been similarly mixed - almost certainly for the same reason that some tracks have not suited - but he is capable and can manage most surfaces. Sheza Dooley (No3) could be the upsetter. Her last two have been ordinary, but go back three starts to a narrow defeat at Trentham. She has a home advantage, has won two from four here and has Michael Walker to assist. Bawl (No8) is an improver. She wasn't far away at Trentham last week and this race is easier.
Fourth leg:
The Cup is such a good field you have to have a spread. Don't Ya Lovett (No2) is as good as we've got at this time of year and is the obvious No 1 pick. Look for him to be dashing at the 200m. Similarly El Perez (No5) and Polish Princess (No8). El Perez has not raced for a long time but goes well when fresh and the stable are happy with him. Polish Princess remains underrated, is one from one on the course and Noel Harris rides her beautifully. If you need to go wider on a percentage Kenadaad (No3) and Floydeboy (No4).
Fifth leg:
As mentioned earlier Indikator (No2), Material Girl (No1) and stablemate Who's Asking (No6) will give you a good cover.
Last leg:
Chris Johnson being reunited with Intersect (No6) is one of the keys here. His form in three starts this preparation has been excellent and each of his last two efforts have suggested a looming win. The 2kg Shannon Doyle pulls off All In Trouble (No7) will be valuable late in the day. Shahry's Jewel (No12) has had a mini break and may benefit if the track suits swoopers. , Thykingdomcome (No11) could be a blowout.
You will have to take short odds, but Wild Cat (No3, R3) should get you some of your Pick6 investment early at Avondale.