KEY POINTS:
Ken Kelso is hoping Michael Coleman is a bad judge.
At least for tomorrow.
Coleman made the decision that surprised Kelso to switch from the stable hope Stone Garden to Sand Hawk for tomorrow's $80,000 Hibiscus Painters Taumarunui Cup at Te Rapa.
Coleman has been the regular rider
of Stone Garden this season and will be replaced by Grant Cooksley, who won the Wellington Cup for the stable on Envoy.
Cooksley has had two rides on Stone Garden for a win and a third, both at Te Rapa.
"I knew Mickey was thinking about both horses so I put Cookie [Cooksley] on stand-by," said Kelso as he prepares for one of the winter's big handicap events.
Stone Garden has an impeccable form record coming into this race. Last week he finished second to Kiri in a too-short 1600m at Avondale and before that failed completely to master very testing conditions at Tauranga, but still managed to finish fifth behind Kiri in the Kiwifruit Cup.
Three starts back he had the tough task of chasing top class mudder El Perez home in the Cornwall handicap at Ellerslie, a race he went into with two straight wins on his scorecard.
Stone Garden has major advantages this time - hard race fitness and a big weight turnaround against Kiri.
Not every horse can back up within a week, but if they can they have a big advantage in fitness in the testing conditions prevailing at this time of the year.
At Tauranga, Kiri carried 52.5kg to victory with Stone Garden carrying 55.5kg in the same race. This time Kiri has 57kg and Stone Garden comes in again with 55.5kg - a 4.5kg turnaround.
The third plus factor is Stone Garden has had three wins from six starts at Te Rapa, a track that throws up significant horses for course statistics.
"I'm very happy with him, he's come through that race at Avondale in terrific order," said Kelso.
Whether Michael Coleman is eventually proved right or wrong, the fact that he's preferred Sand Hawk over Stone Garden is a strong pointer.
The Bob and Jenny Vance-trained gelding has done little wrong.
He was going for four straight wins at Ruakaka two weeks ago and missed by only a head to Letsgoparty, fighting hard right to the finish.
Sand Hawk has won twice from three starts on the Te Rapa track and his style of being prominent before the home bend and sticking on suits this course.
The fascinating runner is the topweight Figure Of Speech, who won this race last year.
He went into it with a victory on this track in early June followed by a win in the Kiwifruit Cup at Tauranga and a narrow defeat by Cape Kinaveral at Ruakaka.
His 978674 formline this time inspires less confidence on paper, but it does not reflect his true chances.
The only effort trainer Ross McCarroll was disappointed in was the seventh in the Kiwifruit Cup two starts back. He is hoping that Figure Of Speech, like many on the day, simply failed to handle what was a very wet and shifting surface.
"I was actually very pleased with his run for fourth at Ruakaka and while the Tauranga track was probably the reason for that ordinary run, it still doesn't fill you with confidence for this race," he said.
"I had him thoroughly checked out after Tauranga and there's nothing wrong with him."
McCarroll's real concern is the 58kg topweight, despite the fact the horse won last year with just 1kg less.
Despite her 57kg, Kiri has to be considered. There is a lot to like about the way she hits the line in her races - regardless of how tough the conditions get she has the ability to sustain her run to the line.
Letsgoparty and the central districts raiders Bernard Rex and Coin Collection are capable of figuring in the finish.
$80,000 TAUMARUNUI CUP
* Matamata jockey Michael Coleman has switched from well-fancied Stone Garden to continue his association with Sand Hawk.
* Stone Garden will be well supported with his record of three wins from six starts at Te Rapa.
* He will be ridden by Grant Cooksley, who has won on him at Te Rapa.
* Sand Hawk is a two-time winner on the track.