Perhaps most importantly he has the natural speed to use that draw and wouldn’t be afraid to lead in a race that lacks many obvious rivals for the pacemaking role.
Few of the 14 starters are leaders and the most logical go-forward horse apart from El Vencedor is Puntura, who has drawn very wide in the short run to the first elbow bend.
His jockey Craig Grylls is never scared to chance his arm so expect to see him pressing forward, but even if he does that should still put El Vencedor in the first three without working in a race that may lack pressure.
“We are stoked with the draw and will be going forward on him,” says trainer Stephen Marsh.
“I think he might be even better suited to the Livamol in a few weeks because he has matured so much and become a far more professional racehorse but he is still ready to go a big one this week.”
If the first half of the Arrowfield is run at a moderate tempo then others likely to be on the speed and therefore hard to beat include Faraglioni and Mali Ston, who might fall into a handier than usual spot from barrier 1.
Those settling further back, which could include Skew Wiff and Malt Time, could be set huge tasks to make up ground on the leaders.
Of course, it only takes one jockey or horse doing something unexpected to rewrite the script of any race and if the pressure does go on, don’t be stunned to see an Opie Bosson special on Skew Wiff have her storming down the outside, particularly if she is able to get three-wide cover.
But whichever scenario unfolds, El Vencedor looks to have more in his favour post-barrier draw than many of his rivals.
Trainer Marsh was also feeling good about Super Photon’s draw of 2 in tomorrow’s $175,000 AHD Hawke’s Bay Guineas.
He looked goofy in his first start back at Taupō and was stuck three wide in the El Roca Trophy here last start, so he should get a more economical trip over the 1400m tomorrow, which should suit.
“He is coming to it and I think he is over the odds,” says Marsh.
Super Photon has been outpointed in both his starts this campaign by Savaglee, though, the latter storming home from last behind Poetic Champion in the El Roca, so he makes obvious appeal.
With that pair in tomorrow’s race, newcomers So Naive and Whiskey N Roses and Captured By Love, the filly who was so brave when second behind Alabama Lass last start, the three-year-old season goes up a notch or two tomorrow.
* Not all the high-class three-year-olds racing this weekend will be at Hastings, though, as Te Rapa hosts a rare Friday meeting today and the first race is a beauty.
Marsh could well provide the favourite with Kiwi Skyhawk, an impressive last-start winner.
“He is a horse we really like and he could be a 2000 Guineas horse, but maybe even a Derby horse further down the track,” says Marsh.
“And we have Love Poem [Race 2, No 10] and she has to be hard to beat.”
Coming up
The thoroughbred season steps up a gear for a variety of reasons this weekend. Here (in chronological order) is what not to miss:
1: Te Rapa, Friday: A rare Friday meeting in Hamilton with implications for stakes races in coming months. A stacked three-year-old race 1, two open handicaps and Lux Libertas (Race 9, No 2) going for five on end in the last.
2: The Valley, Melbourne, Friday night: The A$2 million ($2.18m) Manikato (11.15pm NZT) is one of the hottest sprints of the season so far and the next start on the Everest trail for NZ rep I Wish I Win. He meets a potentially very special three-year-old in Growing Empire.
3: Hastings, Saturday: The Arrowfield Plate is a Group 1 so we all know how much it matters but the Hawke’s Bay Guineas is the first major three-year-old race of the season and could prompt some interest from NZB Kiwi slot holders.
4: Riccarton, Saturday: The next southern lead-up meeting to NZ Cup week but with plenty of northerners already down in the south, including 2000 Guineas second favourite Age Of Discovery (Race 2, No 1).
5: Rosehill, Sydney, Saturday: The A$1 million Golden Rose is about more than stake money, with colts like Broadsiding, Linebacker and perhaps most crucially Storm Boy chasing a Group 1 for their future stallion careers. Amelia’s Jewel (Race 7) and Celestial Legend (Race 9) add further glamour to the day.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
