Chocante's frightening rise from 53kg to 58.5 for tomorrow's $100,000 Hotel Coachman Manawatu Cup looks frightening, but it's not quite as bad as its appearance on paper.
There is a measure of relativity involved. When Chocante won the Counties Cup last start at just his ninth raceday appearance he was given 13 rating points by the chief handicapper, taking him to a R87 level.
The highest acceptor for this race. King Kamada is a R90 horse and with a mandatory 60kg topweight for these races, King Kamada and the similarly rated Sampson were automatics for that spot. With Chocante only three rating points in arrears, he copped 58.5kg.
You have to feel for the connections of King Kamada - when the original nominations were posted the highly rated St Emillion was among them, pushing most of the field to the bottom of the weight scale. King Kamada had just 53.5kg. "I thought, 'well, that's going to work out well'," says King Kamada's trainer Lisa Latta. "Then he's suddenly on 60kg when St Emillion didn't accept."
Very few handicapping systems are perfect and here's an example. Had St Emillion run and King Kamada been given 53.5kg with Chocante down there with him, they would have been on the same weight as White Diamond, who was 6th in a lowly R65 even at Te Rapa last week.
Yes, there is an argument that says if a horse like White Diamond wants to race out of its class, it takes what comes. But King Kamada going from 53.5kg to 60kg is more than a touch extreme.
"It makes it very difficult to win 2300m races like this with 60kg topweight," Latta says. "That said, I'm very happy with him and also my other runner Five To Midnight, he's going to be better off on 57kg."
Chocante, along with last week's Waikato Cup winner Lizzie L'Amour, is one of the emerging excitement machines in the staying ranks. It was almost unbelievable he could sit three wide in mid-field without cover at Counties and run away and win untested at just his ninth raceday appearance.
"We'd set out sights on this race, even before he ran at Counties," said Chocante's trainer Stephen Marsh. "He's still peaking and has a lot before him."
Five To Midnight looked good late winning at Trentham last start and will be suited here. "The probability of an easy track will suit both horses," said Latta.
Sampson has not raced for a month, but won a Foxton barrier trial this week and is well in contention.
Ringo would be a deserved favourite for the $100,000 Kamada Park Manawatu Challenge Stakes after an impressive run of form in four current campaign starts.
He is dropping back to 1400m from the 1600m of the Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham, but with six of his eight career wins at 1400m, it may be possible to read too much into that.
The stylish part of Ringo's races this spring has been the powerhouse finishes he has produced. On a predicted dead track that is going to be important tomorrow.
Lisa Latta had hoped to get a 1200m into her fresh runner Mighty Solomon before stepping him up to 1400m, but that has not been possible.
"He's had a jumpout and two barrier trials, so he should be pretty ready." Mighty Solomon has had four career fresh-up runs for two wins and a placing.
"I'm very happy with him and he'll race well," says Latta.
So should Summer's Day, a terrific first-up second at Otaki when powering home from well back to be just beaten. She is well up to this class and won't mind what track conditions she will strike.
Punting pointers
• Value: Red Tsunami (R8, Te Rapa). Under-rated and likes this track. Any easing would assist.
• Appreciate extra distance: Zacada (R7, Te Rapa). Racing well at 1600m and as a Zabeel will like the step to 2100m.
• On the way up: Street Smart (R5, Te Rapa). There was plenty to like about that victory at Ellerslie last start. By Shocking from a Zabeel mare tells you what you need to know.