KEY POINTS:
Geoff Small hesitates only briefly before declaring Changeover can't win his comeback race at Alexandra Park tonight.
The great pacer will have his first start since November in the $30,000 Kumeu Stakes and under normal circumstances - even in such a hot field - would be a $1.40
favourite.
But after two recent workout defeats confirmed he is still very much on the way back to optimum fitness, he was opened a $6 third favourite by bookmakers, behind arch-rival Gotta Go Cullen ($1.90).
Small will drive Changeover himself, freeing usual pilot David Butcher to partner stable runner Tintin In America in the $100,000 Welcome Stakes at Addington tonight.
And Small says the tactics he will employ, along with the likely tempo of the race, means Changeover has little winning chance.
"He is only about 85 per cent fit so I don't think he can win," said Small, hesitating only slightly because, after all, this is Changeover.
"We all know how good he is and that great horses can do almost anything but he isn't ready for a gutbuster and this race is about getting him ready for the three bigger races coming up.
"So I will be trying to settle him in the field, look after him and then hope he hits the line well.
"Because of that I think too many pieces of the jigsaw would need to fall together perfectly for him to win.
"So I'd tell punters that I am not that keen on him - not this week anyway."
While Changeover has drawn best of the open class horses in the select field, Small's admission should be enough to see Auckland Cup winner Gotta Go Cullen driven aggressively enough to win, even from barrier eight.
Gotta Go Cullen had looked stronger this campaign and worked deceptively well between races at Alexandra Park last Friday.
He looks the best bet, with Montecito the likely improver after his fresh-up third last Thursday.
While Small doesn't hold out great hopes for Changeover's return tonight, he is more confident of an upset with Tintin In America at Addington.
The juvenile clashes with unbeaten local Sir Clive, who will dominate betting.
But Tintin In America worked brilliantly in Christchurch on Monday morning, which followed his winning trial over the talented Antares at Alexandra Park last week.
"I am not saying he will beat Sir Clive but he is on the improve and I think he can go close," said Small.
The Addington meeting also sees Small line-up Awesome Armbro against Monkey King and Classic Cullen in one of the final open class races of the season.
Awesome Armbro galloped away in the Easter Cup last start but will be better suited to the mobile start tonight.
Still, he would need to produce something exceptional should Monkey King be in the same form as he was in the Easter Cup.
COMEBACK
* Changeover returns to racing at Alexandra Park tonight.
* His trainer, Geoff Small, says the great pacer is only 85 per cent fit.
* Small is more confident with Tintin In America, who clashes with Sir Clive at Addington tonight.
* The Alexandra Park meeting hosts four major races with many of the country's best young horses.