KEY POINTS:
The $1.75 about Seachange for tomorrow's $200,000 First Sovereign Trust Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham looked pretty good on the TAB's website yesterday.
Before the betting was posted early in the afternoon, one of the TAB's bookmakers said almost apologetically when asked about the champion mare's likely price:
"She'll be odds on [less than $2]."
And why wouldn't she be? Ownership manager Rick Williams ensured the value of the $1.75 with his summation.
"If the track's no worse than dead she's a good thing, and if the track is worse than dead, she won't start."
The key is that Seachange is back to her pet 1600m distance. The Cambridge mare is unbeaten in three attempts at 1600m and it would seem only rain or the worst possible luck can undermine that record tomorrow.
Trainer Ralph Manning was delighted with the way Seachange galloped this week and expects a peak performance.
It will definitely be Seachange's last run this campaign and possibly her last race in New Zealand.
"She is coming back here to The Oaks Stud for a spell after this race," says Williams. "The other options [in Australia] are all looking too hard.
"We an look at the same races she tackled in Australia the autumn, we know she's competitive in those.
"Then we could either put her in foal next year and run in the Hastings treble or look at Dubai. "It's a possibility she won't run in New Zealand again."
The Trentham track yesterday was improving out of the dead zone and club officials believe that the showers forecast for Wellington tonight and tomorrow will probably not be enough to greatly damage the surface. The mare's arch rival Sir Slick raced well below expectations when he finished 11th, 3.5 lengths behind Princess Coup in the $2 million Kelt Capital and a touch over three lengths from Seachange.
"I can't exactly put my finger on what went wrong in the Kelt," said trainer Graeme Nicholson. "But he didn't blow at all after that race and his work since the Kelt has been sensational. "Maybe the ground was a little harder on the inside at Hastings than he likes, I'm not sure.
"But he's very well and I'm expecting a ding-dong battle between him and Seachange." Dezigna's future looks to be in weight-for-age racing after he lumped 59.5kg in a handicap victory at Hastings last start, clocking a remarkable 1.20.32 for 1400m.
There is no question Dezigna is in career best form and a repeat of his Hastings performance here, where he is much better off comparatively, could see him very competitive.
The presence of Dorabella, Bonjour, Porotene Gem and Delbrae underscores the depth of talent at this level at the moment.
The short neck between Alamosa and El Cuento in the Hawkes Bay Guineas last start puts a fascinating edge to tomorrow's $100,000 Wellington Thoroughbred Breeders Wellington Guineas.
El Cuento had to do a bit of work to lead at Hastings from a wide draw and honours between the first two were fairly well shared.
El Cuento has drawn out again, but barriers are likely to be less critical down the Trentham back straight from the 1500m starting point.
The addition this time of Bonecrusher Stakes winner Rios makes for an interesting form cross reference and Fritzy Boy did well for third in the Hawkes Bay Guineas.