Last night it looked more and more like those predicting a rain-affected track for today's A$2.5 million ($2.8 million) Caulfield Cup are going to be wrong.
Lloyd Williams wishes they were right.
The former owner of Melbourne's plush Crown Casino wanted an "off" track for last year's New Zealand Derbywinner C'est La Guerre who he bought for big money after that race.
"What I was hoping for was a dead 5 or a slow 6 track, but it looks more and more like we're going to get a dead 4," Williams told the Weekend Herald yesterday. "There is even a slight chance the track could come up with a good rating."
C'est La Guerre does not absolutely need wet ground to be competitive, but there is no doubt he is better when it is rain-affected.
He struck a slow Ellerslie track when he exploded away for a four-length Derby win in March last year.
"He's in great order, but the track conditions are going to determine his chance," said Williams.
"There is no escaping the fact he's a better horse on affected going."
As much as the former New Zealander would appreciate a slow track, the critical factor is that those conditions would alter the pattern of the way today's Cup is run.
Caulfield is a sharp, turning track compared with Flemington, where they run the Melbourne Cup. Back runners can be disadvantaged on firm footing because they have to get up and around those in front from the 600m, often an extremely difficult task when good conditions allow the leaders to sprint at that stage of the race.
Slow footing would hamper the speed horses close to the pace on the inside and give more of an advantage to the swoopers.
"He's going to be in the last four or five in running and he's got to get around them," said Williams.
"But he's very well, our jockey Steven Arnold believes he's a top chance and we'll have no excuses."
But Williams is really looking forward to the Melbourne Cup, a race he's practically made his sole target in horse racing. "He's right on target for the Melbourne Cup - there's no doubt he's a better horse at 2400m and up."
C'est La Guerre was last night quoted a $20 chance.
