Racing: Career stats tell real story

The key to Darci Brahma's chances in tomorrow's $200,000 Mudgway Stakes at Hastings is his career stats.

Go back and check over the races the handsome son of Danehill has been actually set for and you get an even deeper respect for him.

The other checkpoint, of course, is the phenomenal final 300m sprint Darci Brahma put on to win the 2000 Guineas at Riccarton last November.

A repeat of that dash would be just about enough to get him home fresh from a spell tomorrow.

There have been genuine reasons why Darci Brahma has been beaten in the flashpoint races he's specifically targeted.

The record of his targets:

* 1st Matamata Stakes, February 2004, by 3.5 lengths.

* 2nd to Mi Jubilee in the group one Sires Produce at Ellerslie. We know now that Darci Brahma is not a 1200m dasher and that day he ran into a spectacular speedster at the top of her form. He did well to be only 1.25 lengths behind, finishing strongly

* 1st in the group one TJ Smith (1600m) at Eagle Farm in Brisbane on June 13, coming from an impossible home turn position.

* 1st in the Hawkes Bay Guineas.

* 1st in the Wellington Guineas.

* 1st in the 2000 Guineas.

* 2nd to Kristov in the group one Waikato Draught Sprint (1400m) at Te Rapa. Darci Brahma was coming off a three-month absence and with a lengthy Australian campaign ahead was not entirely screwed up. Without detracting from a superb effort by Kristov, he was right at the top of his game and there is still a question that Darci Brahma might have been ridden differently.

* 1st in group one 1600m at Otaki in which he beat a very brave Kristov.

* 2nd to Apache Cat in the A$800,000 Cadbury Guineas at Flemington, beaten one length. Without making excuses, Flemington provided an astounding bias that day for horses against the inside rail where Apache Cat was. Darci Brahma went up to win, but Apache Cat drew away slightly in the closing stages to win by one length.

Darci Brahma had been given a stayers preparation for that campaign because of the possibility of a run in the 2400m AJC Derby.

We know now he is almost certainly not a stayer in the true sense.

After Flemington he finished fourth in the Phar Lap Stakes and eighth in the Rosehill Guineas and Mark Walker decided to spell the colt.

Things were heading in the wrong direction and Darci Brahma probably needed the break.

This preparation he finished one and a half lengths in front of Kristov in winning a 1000m barrier trial at Te Teko on August 1 then gave the impression he had a lot left when three-quarters of a length behind Kristov in a trial at Taupo last week.

Walker knows he is right on track with Darci Brahma.

Understandably, he uses Kristov as a measuring stick. "If there is a negative it's the weight he has to carry this time. Last season there was 4.5kg between him and Kristov, this time there is only half a kilo - is he a 4kg better horse now?"

We won't know the answer to that for certain until mid-afternoon tomorrow, but judging by the two barrier trial performances, the chances are the answer will be in the affirmative.