KEY POINTS:
It dawned on Geoff Small about five days ago. There he was, cleaning some gear, when he caught a glimpse of Changeover charging around his paddock and the penny dropped.
And today Small is confident that penny will turn into gold in the $750,000 New Zealand Trotting Cup
at Addington.
Small has Changeover and Awesome Armbro in the great race and while the latter is a winning hope, all anybody wants to talk to Small about is Changeover.
He is harness racing's glamour boy - touted as a once in a decade pacer after a record-setting three-year-old season.
But pacing's poster boy looked a bit tatty in his open class debut at Ashburton three weeks ago, fading to fourth after setting a lung-searing pace in the Flying Stakes.
The race has changed the champ, who has gone from boy wonder to work horse around the stables, taking his work more seriously.
And for two weeks that worried Small.
"Since Ashburton he has been very tough and much more like a stayer around home and in his work," said Small.
"For a while I was wondering whether the hard run, first time in open class, had taken the sting out of him.
"He is still working great, as good as ever, but just not tearing into his work. He just goes out there, does it, and comes back like nothing happened."
Beating Baileys Dream in last Tuesday's Cup trial boosted Small's confidence and subsequent blood tests revealed Changeover is in perfect condition.
But it was not until Small paid more attention to analysing Changeover's post-workout condition that he realised the stallion wasn't flattened by Ashburton. It has made him grow up.
"He seems almost bored around the stables and you could mistake that for being flat but I caught a look at him in the paddock the other day and he was going nuts, really sprinting around and kicking his heels up.
"I've spent even more time watching him since and I think the whole Ashburton thing has turned him into a man, when he used to be a giant kid who didn't need to try his hardest to win.
"If he was tired now he would lie down or take it easy in his paddock, especially with the amount of work I have been putting into him.
"But he is finishing his work and then jumping around like he needs more.
"It sounds crazy, but I think he has finally started to realise his potential."
That is an unpleasant prospect for those who oppose the Patumahoe four-year-old today.
While the race contains great stayers like Flashing Red, Sly Flyin and Tribute, professionals like Classic Cullen and Bondy, speedsters Awesome Armbro and Foreal and a new, improved Baileys Dream, it only contains two horses who might become champions: Changeover and Monkey King.
Monkey King only needs to step safely to be a huge winning chance and he could do something extraordinary if saved for one run off a hot pace.
He is a rarity in modern harness racing, a horse who can come from last to win a Cup. If it is a fair fight today, Changeover will need to be a champion to beat him.
And is he?
Let's leave the last word on that to Small, a man who wants to win the New Zealand Cup more than anything in harness racing. A man who also trained one of the greatest pacer we have seen in Elsu, so knows a thing or two about champions.
"A week ago I wasn't sure whether he'd finish a brave fifth or something, or whether he would come out and monster them.
"Now I am thinking it might be the latter."
FULL CUP
Where: Addington, Christchurch.
When: 5.15pm today.
What: $750,000 open class pace over 3200m.
Watch: Live on Trackside from 11.30am; Cup live on TV3.
Who: Changeover, Monkey King, Baileys Dream, Flashing Red, Sly Flyin, Classic Cullen, Awesome Armbro and more.
In a nutshell: Young champ Changeover's biggest test against speed freak Monkey King, whose standing-start manners are questionable. Great supporting cast makes for plenty of value for punters.
MICK GUERIN'S BIG-RACE PICKS
1 Changeover
2 Monkey King
3 Baileys Dream
* Last night's TAB Sportsbet odds: $3.20 Changeover; $4.80 Baileys Dream; $5.50 Monkey King; $10 Classic Cullen; $11 Awesome Armbro; $15 Tribute; $16 Sly Flyin; $18 Flashing Red, Roman Gladiator; $26 Waipawa Lad; $31 Bondy, Foreal; $41 It's Ella; $61 Report For Duty, Keeprightondreaming, Power Of Tara; $101 Nick Off Holme; $201 Presido.
NRM Sires' Stakes Series Final, 3yos, 1950m: $3 Ohoka Arizona; $4.50 Auckland Reactor; $5 Ohoka Utah; $12 Fiery Falcon; $14 Steve McQueen; $16 Mattnamaras Band; $18 West Coast Anvil, Reklaw's Boy, The Cavalier; $21 Texas Hold Em.