New Zealand's challenge for the $300,000 Victoria Cup could be over just seconds after the race begins.
That is the scenario facing the five New Zealand pacers in tonight's group one event from Moonee Valley if top Queensland pacer Be Good Johnny can hold the front from the ace draw.
Because if he does then the 2570m event is his to lose and even the best efforts of Alta Serena, Winforu, Harnetts Creek, Mister D G or London Legend may not alter the result.
While the race brings together 11 of the best pacers in Australasia, the difference between them is small, with no champion like Elsu to dominate.
And that means few of these horses would be good enough to beat Be Good Johnny if they have to give him a start, or even risk attacking him in the middle stages.
Be Good Johnny has emerged from being a virtual unknown at the start of this year to having claims to the title of best pacer in Australia after his last-start Miracle Mile win in Sydney.
On that occasion he was good enough to sit parked and still beat Slipnslide and Robin Hood, the two other highest rated pacers in Australia.
With that effort in mind it is hard to see how he could be beaten tonight if he can hold the lead and does not get hammered by his rivals.
But that is where tonight's race gets tricky because Be Good Johnny's chances of holding the front depend on who you ask.
His trainer-driver John McCarthy says it is almost certain, suggesting the gelding has more speed off the mobile gate than he has shown in the past.
"I didn't punch him off the gate in the Miracle Mile because I knew there was going to be plenty of speed for the other leaders," said McCarthy.
"But this week is a different type of race. This week we have the ace and I think we can lead.
"If he does I will be staying there and trying to lead all the way."
That may be the usual Australian pre-race hype, particularly as Be Good Johnny has not shown blazing gate speed before.
And his biggest danger in that department should be South Auckland pacer Winforu.
The former Great Northern Derby winner is one of the quickest horses in Australasia off the gate and has drawn barrier two.
His trainer Geoff Small says that leaves them with no option but to try for the front.
"He has the speed and the draw so of course we will be going off the gate early and trying to get the front.
"If we could do that then David [Butcher, driver] has the choice to stay there or take a trail behind the right horse."
The most likely horse for Winforu to trail would be Sydney pacer Dinki Di, a punishing stayer you would rather being following than trying to race in the middle stages.
That sort of trip would give Winforu a handy hope at each way odds, but New Zealand's best hope should be Alta Serena.
She was a luckless second in the New Zealand Cup last month and impressed when bolting in at the Pukekohe workouts last week.
She is best when saved for one sustained run at the leaders and the handy draw at barrier three could secure her the right trip.
If Be Good Johnny is crossed and becomes locked away on the markers then Robin Hood appeals most of the Australians.
His only defeat in his last nine starts was when not suited by the tight track and sprint distance in the Miracle Mile but back to a bigger track and longer trip he could even start favourite.
He starts from the outside of the second line but that does not worry driver Gavin Lang as Robin Hood does not have the gate speed to use a better marble.
"I will be happy to sit back there and watch them go hard early and then choose whether to move or wait for one run at them," said Lang.
"I think he is the horse to beat because he will appreciate the distance more than most horses in the race."
Slipnslide has been a class act all season and may represent the best value on the Kiwi tote in comparison with his price in Australia so is another to include.
The other feature tonight sees Kiwi mare Allegro Agitato with a chance to redeem herself in the A$100,000 Australian Trotting Grand Prix.
Allegro Agitato has cost punters plenty in unsuitable races at her last two starts but has the draw to stay handy tonight and looks the one to beat in a race she could have won last season but for a home-turn break.
Her biggest dangers will be Victorian trotters Sumthingaboutmaori and Sammy Do Good in what looks a three-horse race.
Cup facts
No mare has ever won the Victoria Cup, which means Alta Serena has the weight of history against her.
Five of the last six Victoria Cup winners contested the Miracle Mile that season: Be Good Johnny, Slipnslide and Robin Hood match that criteria.
Barrier one has provided one Cup winner in the last 19 years (Desperate Comment in 1997).
Favourites have won just two of the past 10 Victoria Cups.
New Zealand's challenge for the $300,000 Victoria Cup could be over just seconds after the race begins.
That is the scenario facing the five New Zealand pacers in tonight's group one event from Moonee Valley if top Queensland pacer Be Good Johnny can hold the front from the ace draw.
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