KEY POINTS:
Ken Barron has no worries heading into Georgetown's crucial Derby prelude at Alexandra Park tonight.
But that doesn't mean punters should be quite so optimistic.
Barron trains and drives the hard-as-nails 3-year-old who was the star of the December carnival on this track but goes into tonight's second
Derby prelude having not raced in weeks.
To make matters worse, he has drawn one on the second line - hardly the ideal draw for a stayer who likes to make his own luck.
And if that isn't enough to put you off backing him tonight consider this: Barron is happy to drive him for luck.
The reason is tonight's preludes guarantee the first five home a start in next Friday's $200,000 Woodlands Derby, with the remaining three spots in the classic decided by the ATC.
With three scratchings out of the preludes, only eight horses are going to miss a Derby start, so Georgetown only needs to beat four rivals home tonight to make the Derby field. And that allows Barron the freedom to be unlucky.
"From where he is drawn I will try and punch out behind Cody Banks (drawn one) and get handy," he said. "But if he isn't quick enough early or the gaps don't come then he could end up three deep on the markers.
"That wouldn't worry me because I am sure they will go hard enough for him to get off the markers at some stage and even if they don't we don't have to beat many home.
"I'm happy with the draw because it gives me a chance to try something new but, from the punter's point of view, I'd say he is vulnerable."
While Barron has his doubts about whether Georgetown may get the right run to win tonight, he is adamant fitness won't be an issue.
"He may not have been to the races or trials for a while but he has had two good private workouts at Motukarara and one at Addington.
"He is at least as good as when he came up here in December."
While that suggests Georgetown is still the pacer to beat in the Derby, Barron's attitude to tonight's prelude suggests punters should look for value in other areas.
The best bet could be Cody Banks, who has all the options from barrier one. He missed a lead-up race last week because of a minor cold but has such high speed he should lead or trail and then use the passing lane. He looks hard to beat if he gets luck.
West Coast Anvil, Cullens Legacy and Pembrook Benny are all high speed pacers who could win if the cards fell their way while look for Anescape and Matai Man to be getting home strongly if the pace is on.
Barron rates Montrose Kid his best chance at tonight's meeting.
DERBY PRELUDES
* Two preludes of the $200,000 Woodlands Derby will be run at Alexandra Park tonight.
* The first five home are guaranteed a spot in the classic, along with three others at the discretion of the ATC.
* Rider On The Storm is the favourite for the Derby and tonight's first prelude.
* Georgetown faces a tricky draw in the second prelude.