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SYDNEY - Bookmakers rate tomorrow's Futurity Stakes at Caulfield a one-horse race, but Seachange's Waikato trainer Ralph Manning and one confident Australian punter disagree.
"Nothing's unbeatable - he's been beaten before," Manning said yesterday of early odds-on favourite El Segundo.
Seachange chases her fourth group one win against
seven rivals in the A$700,000 ($796,000) 1600m weight-for-age feature, a week after a three-length demolition of a group three mares field over 1400m on the same course.
TAB Sportsbet opened El Segundo a $1.55 favourite yesterday, with Seachange an enticing $11 fourth favourite.
By mid-morning Seachange was into $8.50 after two A$4000 bets from the same punter - the first at $11 and the second at $9.50.
"It's still pretty good money on her current form," Manning said of the $8.50 price.
Sydney trainer Gai Waterhouse's consistent mare Aqua D'Amore ($7.50) and Melbourne Cup placegetter Maybe Better ($8) were rated just ahead of Seachange in the early market.
El Segundo was the short-priced favourite after a comfortable win in the Orr Stakes (1400m) on February 11.
From that race, top 3-year-old filly Miss Finland (fourth), Seachange (fifth) and Pompeii Ruler (seventh) all won at Caulfield last Saturday.
Manning added of Seachange: "She was only beaten 1.9 lengths in the Orr and that form's carried on.
"She's improved but she'd need to if she's going to be competitive with that field."
Manning's only concern is the back-up in racing from last Saturday.
Seachange has only raced a week apart once before, last November at the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington when she ran second in the Myer Stakes then flopped in the Emirates Stakes a week later.
Manning said the signs this time round were encouraging.
"She came through really well this week and eaten everything. It wasn't a hard run, not much more than a track gallop."
Tactics will play a big part tomorrow and Manning insisted he wouldn't burden Australian jockey Michael Rodd with instructions.
After telling Rodd not to lead at any cost last Saturday, Rodd took Seachange to the front in a slowly run race and shot clear in a 33.85sec final 600m.
"We keep on not wanting to lead but everyone seems to think she's a leader over here," Manning said.
"She only led once at home [when beating Wahid by five lengths at Woodville] and we don't want her to be a sitting duck on Saturday.
"But if they give her soft sectionals she'll be hard to get past."
The fact there is no obvious pacemaker might encourage Rodd to lead, with the Mick Price-trained Red Dazzler and Aqua D'Amore other on-pace runners.
Red Dazzler was narrowly beaten by Fields Of Omagh in last year's Futurity.
Safely through the Futurity, Seachange will likely be freshened for the group one A$300,000 Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m) for fillies and mares at Morphettville, Adelaide, on April 21.
- NZPA