Merlin faces new challenge in Ashburton Flying Stakes against Don’t Stop Dreaming

Merlin winning The Race by Grins at Cambridge.

Merlin faces an old threat and a new one in the Ashburton Flying Stakes today but co-trainer Scott Phelan isn’t worried about either.

The northern star has been New Zealand’s best pacer this year and looks the biggest local threat to Aussie champion Leap To Fame in the $1 million IRT New Zealand Cup at Addington in 15 days.

The latter confirmed his New Zealand trip with an effortless win at Menangle on Saturday night and now he is coming to the Cup, it looks like only Merlin or arch-rival Don’t Stop Dreaming could realistically defend New Zealand’s pacing honour.

They go head to head in today’s $60,000 Group 2 and it is a rare standing-start test for both of them as while they have had five standing-start attempts between them and handled them well, neither has started on a full front line in a stand before.

Don’t Stop Dreaming’s three career standing starts have been off 15m and then twice off 20m handicaps, while Merlin’s two career standing starts have both been off 20m handicaps.

Horses will usually handle being off a handicap in a standing start, with more room to move and horses to follow out, better than the more claustrophobic environment of being in a full front line of horses like both stars face today.

But Phelan, who trains Merlin with legend Barry Purdon, isn’t concerned.

“He is such a good pacer and so clean-gaited we are really confident he will be fine at the start,” says Phelan.

“And he is drawn out a little wider so hopefully won’t have to stand for too long.

“He is working great and we are really confident.”

While Team Merlin have huge respect for Don’t Stop Dreaming, they have had the better of him this year, with Merlin looking to have strengthened more.

Don’t Stop Dreaming will have benefitted from his winter spell as he has a very busy start to 2024 and even if there is a length between them either way on ability, the deciding factor could well be who steps better and gains tactical advantage.

The stable also have Cold Chisel and Mach Shard in the Flying Stakes, both being place chances but it would be a surprise to see them overturn the favourites, even though Mach Shard did in twice in the autumn.

The Purdon/Phelan team will unleash all sorts of weapons at today’s huge meeting, including what could be a very special juvenile filly in Youretheonethatiwant (R5, No 14).

She has been sizzling in the north but has a second-line draw in a capacity field and Phelan warns he would prefer to drive her with one run, which means southern favourite Captains Mistress could get a fair way in front of her.

“I think she will kick home hard but I don’t want to be circumnavigating them in the middle stages. But she can still win,” he offers.

The stable also has Jeremiah (R5, No 7) and Better Knuckle Up (9) in the 3-year-old Sophomore Pace with Phelan unable to choose between the pair while earlier, Confederate and Ultimate Racy Girl have at least place chances drawn to get good trailing runs.

Today’s other features see Bet N Win and Oscar Bonavena set to dominate the Flying Trot after the scratching of Muscle Mountain, while Mantra Blue will need some luck to win again in the mares’ race from her second-line draw.

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.