Trained by Chris Waller and ridden by James McDonald, Lady Shenandoah swept through the three-year-old fillies ranks last season, oozing x-factor, and was a good thing beaten in the Concorde in Sydney fresh-up for this term in her last start.
From a good barrier in tonight’s 1200m she would be long odds-on, but she has barrier 10 and that might mean the others have a hope.
“It will be tougher up against her,” admits Kelso, who trains Alabama Lass with wife Bev.
“But we are confident our mare will be better for her first-up run.
“She was fresh that day and played up in the gates and Craig [Williams, jockey] is sure she has come on since then.
“The two speed horses who went with her early in the Moir aren’t in this race so it could set up nicely for her from barrier 5.
“But she will have to be very good to win, there are no easy Group 1s in Australia.”
Alabama Lass, who jumps at 11.15pm (NZ time) tonight, is rated a $7.50 chance, with Lady Shenandoah a drifting $2.35 favourite.
Even if Alabama Lass wins, Kelso says he won’t be out celebrating all night as he has to be at the airport at 5am on Saturday to catch a plane back to Auckland then jump in the car to Te Rapa for leg two of his Group 1 dream double.
Legarto might start favourite in the $400,000 Howden Insurance Mile, the 1600m distance likely to suit her better than the 1400m of the Proisir Plate she and so many of her rivals contested at Ellerslie last start.
What might not be quite as much to her taste is a potential heavy track at Te Rapa, even though she actually won her debut on a Heavy 10.
“That was a long time ago when she was two and she was just better than those horses,” explains Kelso.
“But she has won on soft tracks since and I think a lot of the favourites in this race find themselves in the same boat, they would mostly prefer a better track.
“But I will say this, she is not a duffer on a wet track and she really likes Te Rapa, which could help her handle it.
“So it might not be perfect for her but it still wouldn’t surprise me if she won.
“She has done things before I thought she couldn’t do so she can do it again.”
Legarto is aided by the fact most of the big names in tomorrow’s Howden also wouldn’t ideally want a heavy track but most of their trainers are resigned to going around on it.
Mares like Legarto and La Crique have shown enough in the wet and are in the right condition to get away with it, whereas the pair on the next line of betting, El Vencedor and Quintessa, would seem less likely to pull off a heavy-track miracle.
With several of the proven wet-trackers out of form, the emerging Sterling Express is starting to look like the horse best suited to the way tomorrow’s race sets up.
The best advice for punters might be to wait and watch how Te Rapa plays during the meeting to reveal not only the track conditions but racing patterns.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
