KEY POINTS:
If Gareth Dixon's form this season runs true Ebony Gem will win tonight's $20,000 Perry Foundation Thames Cup.
But if Dixon's form in the past six weeks continues then punters should feel a little nervous.
Dixon has had a career-best season, already equalling his personal best win tally,
while his stable has earned more money than ever before.
So just two months ago he was thinking he was in for a stellar season. Then everything started to go wrong.
"It has been a pretty frustrating six weeks," admits the South Auckland trainer.
In that time, stable star Lizzie Maguire has been beaten out of a place in two group ones at Addington, only to later be run down by Safin in the Harness Jewels.
Exciting juvenile pacer Antares ended up missing his two biggest aims of the season with growing pains, while other elite pacers like Ebony Gem have found themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time.
"I am not going to moan about it because it has been a good season overall and when you race horses at the top level it is always going to be harder to win.
"But I'd like to get a couple of wins again pretty shortly, Ebony Gem this week would be a nice start."
The 4-year-old is the horse to beat in the $20,000 Cup after chasing home Awesome Armbro in a similar field two weeks ago.
With his conqueror that night not in tonight's race and Ebony Gem having now proven his standing start manners, he should be short on the tote.
"It was a huge run from Awesome Armbro to beat him last start but I was very happy with my fella.
"He stepped well and showed a lot of courage in the straight.
"On that run he has to be hard to beat this week."
Ebony Gem is aided by being on the outside of the three horses drawn on the 10m mark while it is only a small field, meaning driver Peter Ferguson may get the chance to drive the gelding for one run at the leaders, which is how he is most potent.
For Ferguson the race is a chance to snare back a win on junior driving sensation Dexter Dunn, with the pair locked in a captivating battle for the national premiership.
The small field should also aid Ohoka Moon and Pulsation, who also face handicaps while in-form mare Mystic Mink will have plenty of supporters in a race with many chances outside the favourite.
Dixon also lines up maidens Artiliem (race five) and Cyclone Night (race two).
Artiliem is still maturing and meets some tough opponents in the first leg of the $150,000 Pick6 so may need luck but Cyclone Night will have some high-profile support listening in from the other side of the world.
The filly is raced by, among others, Black Caps bowler Kyle Mills, a close friend of Dixon who occasionally drives trackwork for the stable.
"Kyle, his brother Heath, Ant Strachan (former All Black) and some other top guys own her and I think they will end up having some fun," said Dixon.
"She faces a tough task this week from the outside of the front line on debut but she is a nice filly and she is one to follow over the winter."
The other highlight of tonight's programme is the main trot, race six, which sees La Femme D'Argent continue her late surge for 4-year-old trotting mare of the year honours.
The sister to champion three-year-old Sovereignty has looked very gifted in her very short career and if she trots throughout tonight she could make it four wins from just seven starts.
BREAKING DROUGHT
* Trainer Gareth Dixon has had a great season but a poor past six weeks.
* He hopes Ebony Gem can turn that around in tonight's Thames Cup at Alexandra Park.
* Among Dixon's other stable runners tonight is a filly part-owned by Black Caps bowler Kyle Mills.
* The meeting hosts a $150,000 Pick6.