KEY POINTS:
There is ample scope for a couple of roughies to bob up in today's $300,000 Pick6, so you need to find a couple of legs you can approach with at least some confidence.
Teepeem (No1, R7) might be one of them.
His form looks a bit ordinary but
his last-start fourth on this track was a cracker.
He got too far off them over 1600m and made up a huge amount of ground to finish fourth to The Cosmob.
He jumps up to a more suitable 2000m this time and Michael Walker will have worked the horse out a little more.
Anood Prospect (No3) has been impressive and might not be finished yet.
Plenty will anchor Seachange (No5, R8) in the Pick6 and you can make a case that that's wise, but the way the track will probably race you might like to take one smaller ticket with some insurance around the outstanding mare.
If she's beaten, any one of Cog Hill (No1), Veloce Bella (No8), Bulginbaah (No2) or Floydeboy (No4) could do it.
You probably either have to anchor Seachange, or go wide.
It's not easy winning open handicaps with 58kg, but Cape Kinaveral (No1, R5) does look a standout in the opening Pick6 leg.
He has had time to recover from his tough fight with Figure Of Speech when a close second in the Taumarunui Cup on this track and there is nothing of the class of Figure Of Speech in this line-up. Lisa Cropp should get him over the line.
Kitty Milargro (No6, R6) is a 6-year-old mare having her 20th start to try and quit maidens.
But the 52.5kg is the lightest weight she will have carried this preparation and she has been going good races, producing strong finishes. She extends out to 2000m this time and she is a must-include on a Pick6 ticket.
Miss Tuppy (No5) and No Going Back (No1) rate in a tricky race.
Danzahorse (No2, R9) didn't help his chances by running around in the home straight when in front on this track last start. He is holding his form remarkably well and gets another 3kg off his back with Danielle Johnson doing the riding.
Visitor Magic Crown (No4) is another who has been consistent and looks a danger along with Fincayra Miss (No3) and Razorlight (No5).
Waitui Belle (No13) could be the upsetter.
She was unplaced at Te Rapa for the first time in three starts last time out, but she is definitely better than that. She comes in well with a 4kg claim.
El Marino (No10, R10) was so impressive leaving maidens at Rotorua he deserves a chance in an even line-up in the last.
He looked no chance on the home turn in that race and won by three and a half lengths.
Opie Bosson climbs aboard and it looks a powerful combination. Onchathamstime (No7) and Cashman (No4) are both going well enough to guarantee their place on most Pick6 tickets. For those looking for value, Kurasawa (No13) and Whisper (No18) fit the bill.
Whisper made up a lot of ground after a slow start here last start.
If trainer Tim Carter decides to run Raised On Rock (No2, R2) you can be reasonably confident he assumes the promising maiden will handle the "off" track.
Track conditions will play a major part at Otaki today, particularly with the likes of Bonjour resuming in the sprint.
The rain that arrived Thursday night will have done Bonjour (No3, R8) no favours. He is best on good footing, but he does have soft form of a win and a placing from three starts. Two advantages are that Otaki is one of the better wet tracks around and it is his home track. This bloke is all class, looks in for a big season and can win this even with 56.5kg if he can manage the conditions. Porotene Gem (No8) won with a leg tied up on this track when resuming and with only 52kg on her back will be tough again.
What a race the A$200,000 ($232,192) Liston Stakes is going to be in Melbourne.
The word around the place is that Perth galloper Marasco has been working the place down since arriving from the west and to expect a massive effort, even with Apache Cat in the race. Look for a cheeky first-up run from Sphenophyta.