KEY POINTS:
If you doubt Zamfir has the credentials to win the feature at Pukekohe today, take a peek at the horses she has chased home for minor placings recently.
The winners of the last three races she has competed in were Kenadaad, Samurai and Polish Princess, each of whom
would start $1.50 favourites in this race.
Even with that formline put aside, Zamfir's style of racing in getting to the line strongly will be one of her strongest assets this afternoon.
It will be a tough slog up the long Pukekohe straight in most races and the ability to keep pressing on will be very valuable.
The 58kg topweight will not be easy for a mare - even for one of Zamfir's class - but she has earned the weight racing in better fields.
Laughing Girl may not be in the same class, but the 5kg she is in receipt of from Zamfir goes a long way towards balancing that up.
She has had two starts on the Pukekohe track for runaway wins, loves wet ground and similarly runs on very strongly in the closing stages of her races.
Zamfir to win with a saver on the quinella with the two mares.
Grani (No1, R1) and Slumber (No2) will take a lot of money in the hurdles, but Ravanelli (No4) might make the pair work hard for victory.
Ravanelli is dropping back in class after chasing Diamondsareforever and Van Winkle at Hastings and Trentham and looks well placed in this race with 63.5kg. It's an interesting jumps race to start the eight-race programme.
As we've seen through much of the winter, apprentice claims will be extremely valuable in the tough conditions.
The Fred Factor (No1, R2) is dropping back from open grade to an R90 event and Tasha Collett adds something to the equation by taking 2kg off his back. He was outfinished late when second over 1600m at Avondale last time and will probably benefit from dropping back to 1400m.
Dead Common (No2) disappointed badly when expected to go well in that same race at Avondale, but he is a lot better than that and is worth at least one more try. He would beat this lot at his best.
Little Red (No3, R4) was never on the track after starting from a wide gate at Te Rapa last start. He was no chance with the path he was forced to take and can get back on the board here. Devonport Magic (No6) has been threatening to do something for a while and gets a good opportunity to do it here with Danielle Johnson removing 3kg from the saddle.
Johnson gets another top opportunity aboard last-start winner El Cid (No2, R6), who goes up a grade from last time, but drops back to 53kg with the claim. The extremely interesting runner is the beautifully bred Brut Force (Giant's Causeway - Champagne) (No5). He looked a quality 3-year-old last season and showed up when a nice third behind Seachange at the recent Te Awamutu barrier trials. The big question of course is his ability to resume on a very heavy track. He is worth considering though even on the basis of sheer class alone.
The $3.40 the TAB was yesterday offering on Black Eagle (No1, R6) in today's $60,000 Grand National Steeples at Riccarton looked attractive. He might not be a good thing, especially if the rain that is forecast sweeps through and makes the going even more testing, but he is a brilliant jumper who can stay, as he showed in comprehensively winning the Wellington Steeplechase. He's the type of horse you just love backing because he's an outstanding jumper of the big fences and will be in or near the lead and very obvious throughout the race. Stitched (No2) was strong at the end when winning the Koral Steeples on the first day, suggesting he is going to be a potent force in the big race.
Kenadaad (No1, R5) is claiming 2kg from his 59.5kg but even on 57.5kg he has to give Mr Benny Hill (No8) 6kg and that will be a big ask. Mr Benny Hill hadn't raced for a month when he got home by a pencil line on the first day and you have to believe he has improved enough to jump up to open company here. Potentially he has always looked up to that grade and will give this race a real shake. The 51.5kg looks attractive.
Waikeepadacash (No2, R7) was closing well in the final 150m behind Mr Benny Hill last Saturday after going very wide on the corner looking for the best strip of ground. It was a solid effort and the way he finished off suggests the extra 200m this time might help him.