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Home / Sport / Racing

<i>Mike Dillon:</i> Kiwis good value on Melbourne tote

3 Nov, 2006 07:11 AM4 mins to read

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KEY POINTS:

Today's card at Flemington makes you wish the interfacing of betting pools with Australia was already with us instead of a couple of months away.

You would then get proper odds about the class New Zealanders going around on Derby Day in Melbourne instead of having to take
very skinny 'unders' (odds).

Seachange will be between $6 and $7 with bookmakers today and could even be considerably longer on the Melbourne tote, but you will be lucky if you see $3 on the New Zealand TAB.

Facing a mare like Rewaaya that is unacceptably unders is created by the imbalance of money on the Kiwi runner on her home tote.

With David Hayes' team unstoppable, Rewaaya will be difficult to keep out, but at the $7 Seachange is worth the risk.

Miss Potential won this race for New Zealand two years ago, so the form is on the board and Seachange has two big positives, the drop back to 1600m from the unsuitable 2040m of the Kelt Capital at Hastings last start and her inside barrier draw.

Traditionally New Zealand horses do not have a great record in group one sprints against the Australians, but that tide is quite noticeably turning and Gee I Jane, with even luck, is not out of play in the Salinger Stakes.

This is a red hot field, but Gee I Jane remains underrated despite putting together a wonderful record.

Speed alone does not win major sprints in Australia - horses must hit the line hard from the 200m and that is Gee I Jane's style of racing.

If the inside lane is racing kindly and Michael Rodd can give the Cambridge mare a good run behind the leaders and find an out at the 300m, Gee I Jane can give them something to think about.

Miss Andretti and Fast'N' Famous are the ones to beat.

One of the best bets at Flemington is Vanquished in Race 2, the Saab, which sees New Zealander Zabeat going around as a final lead-up for the Melbourne Cup.

Trainer Bede Murray doesn't want to run Vanquished, but he is forced to if he is to get the chance for vengeance for the Victoria Racing Cluc scratching one-time favourite Universal Prince from the Melbourne Cup five years ago on supposed grounds of soundness.

Vanquished has to force his way into the Melbourne Cup field by winning today after missing his chance when an unlucky second to Mandela in the Geelong Cup 10 days ago.

That day he slipped on the home turn, ended up in the slow lane out wide but still powered home to head the chase after the winner.

He looks very much a Flemington horse. He is quoted in Melbourne at $3.20 favourite and he should come up at something close to that on the New Zealand TAB.

Difficult to know what odds The One will be in New Zealand. He is a realistic chance in the Derby, despite a strong Australian push for Efficient and Get Square.

The A$750,000 ($863,000) Mackinnon Stakes is difficult to assess as a betting race.

You have El Segundo going around as the $2.30 favourite after his nose defeat in last week's Cox Plate, but he has shown he does not always back up well within a week following a hard run. On class he is the winner, but there has to be a slight question mark.

Then you have Sphenophyta who was supposed to be spelling after a good, but slightly tired fifth in the Caulfield Cup. He is the type to freshen quickly, but races like the Mackinnon and Melbourne Cup are not events you add on to a preparation after a change of mind. Another question mark there.

A great spectacle, but poor betting race.

The New Zealanders King Of Ashford and Kelt winner Legs are in with a shout for some of the dollars.

* Samurai will go close to finally getting his reward in the Feilding Cup.

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