KEY POINTS:
Great betting races at Hastings today.
There are probably no absolute good things, but Fully Fledged in the $100,000 Golan Hawkes Bay Guineas is as close as we're going to get to one on the programme.
Whether Fully Fledged should have won at Hastings two weeks ago is
irrelevant to this - he carried a crushing 60.5kg that day and this is at level weights. Fully Fledged is a special sort of horse and it'll be a surprise if he's beaten, even though there are new runners this time like All In Brawl and Minstrel Court.
All In Brawl is the quick improver. He is a big fleshy type who was big in condition when third in the Wanganui Guineas when resuming. He will be much fitter this time. His wide barrier is a concern, but he has big-race rider Hayden Tinsley to help him.
Each of these early season 3-year-old races help determine the pecking order for the second-season horses and we'll be much the wiser after this one. Vincent Mangano had a virus when he failed in the Wanganui Guineas, Minstrel Court is improving and galloped well between races at Matamata last Sunday and The Diamond Knight is due a change of luck. The bolter for the trifecta is Caratacus. He was only second in minor company at Pukekohe when resuming, but gave away a lot of weight and hit the line strongly.
There should be value in many of the races. The first of them could be The Laud (No 6, R1). He's not the easiest horse to ride and had to come from near last to win on the first day of the Hastings carnival. His eighth to Kovak here two weeks ago was not the worst effort and he is worth a nibble at good odds. That win by Bruce Almighty (No 3) at Taranaki last week was super.
Morelle (No 4, R2) was beaten by a wide gate at Ellerslie last week, plain and simple. He has drawn 4 this time and although there might be a slight question over the seven-day backup, he should go close to a deserved win. De Los Angeles (No 1) is smart, but he's 4kg worse off against Morelle.
Race 3, the sprint, could be a trap, so shop for decent odds and that could be Castles Burning (No 9). He's underrated if you go through his record. All My Colours (No 7) might run a bold race fresh.
John Wheeler should have a big summer with Anahera (No 5, R4), who resumes today. He showed glimpses of ability last season and has had a barrier trial to fit him for this. Lots of chances here and Just Onemore (No 4) is one of the best of them.
What a good thing beaten Stand Tall (No 3, R6) was when resuming on the middle day of the carnival. If Leith Innes had found half a gap, the big bloke would have won comfortably. Couple him up in multiples with Princess Annaliese (No 13), Intermittent (No 6), The Foreman (No 4) and Lunus (No 12).
The trifecta looks the way to go in the $2 million Kelt Capital Stakes if you take the view that only bad luck can beat Princess Coup (No 11, R9) - and you just about have to. Nom Du Jeu (No 5) is the obvious second choice. Take your next best six horses for third. Or stand out Princess Coup and shuffle the next six in the placings.