KEY POINTS:
Two words sum up punting today - be careful. Last night we had no real idea what predicted rain was going to do to the Ellerslie track for this afternoon.
And how that plays will be crucial.
We did know the track would be heavy for Trentham's big
day.
Not that that helped a great deal, because in winter when it comes up heavy you've got horses that are looking for those conditions.
At this time of year, very few of them are.
Fortunately, most of the main players in the big race of the day, the $200,000 Captain Cook Stakes, can manage rain-affected tracks.
Fritzy Boy, Bulginbaah and Rios all handle "off" surfaces and the likes of O'Ceirins Angel and Old Belvedere are not too shabby in the wet either.
The Hastings form tells us Fritzy Boy should go close to winning the big one. In his favour is that he is so honest and consistent and the race looks perfect for him.
Bulginbaah grits out his finishes better than most and you can't over- emphasise how important that's going to be today.
Rios is the sleeper. His two runs behind Princess Coup at Hastings were luckless and better than they looked. Provided it doesn't get too testing, Rios should manage the track and should be at good each-way odds.
Graham Thomas has found a nice race for Gold Rum (No 11, R4). Unbeaten in three races, he's jumping to R90 pretty quickly, but the way he's won his races suggests he's capable of the step. He looked certain to be run down last start, but kicked back with sheer class. No Cash (No 3) will find this a touch easier than his last race at Hastings.
The Wellington Guineas, Race 6, is a nightmare because of the conditions. Juice (No 17) is a tough, classy filly but how much the heavy surface negates that class is the concern. The Diamond Knight (No 7) is a talented type and being by Al Akbar he should manage the conditions better than most. He was only 1.5 lengths away fourth in the Hawkes Bay Guineas after leading. On a decent surface All In Brawl (No 2) was the horse to test Juice, but there is no indication how he will go on the heavy stuff. Like Juice, he is committed to running as a lead-up to the Guineas races at Riccarton. Crystal ball stuff. Perhaps The Diamond Knight each-way if the odds support that.
Before the track became heavy Stand Tall (No 1, R7) looks a good prospect, but how he will handle his 58kg remains to be seen. He may turn out to be a bad risk at the short odds. Perhaps the best bet outside Fritzy Boy is Yanna Marie (No 12, R9). She is a good mare and has had no luck at all in her most recent races. She gets to the line strongly and that's what is going to win races today. With 53.5kg on her back she's going to take some keeping out. Lunus (No 11) is similarly talented and has been racing in better fields than this.
Yes, we all know Kenny Starfighter (No 8) is one of the biggest thieves - gunnas they call them these days - in the game. But his recent work has been much improved and even if he hasn't turned a corner, he might have looked around one. Give him one last chance and if he fails hate him forever.
Which takes us to Ellerslie:
Culminate (No 3, R8) looked the bet of the day until the prospect of a wet track arose. She has had two starts on a slow surface for a win and a third to stablemate Ististar so perhaps she will cope. Indikator (No 6) looks superb when he gets loose, wet footing and he's going to take holding out.
Trinney (No 13, R10) really impressed the way she hit the line at Tauranga last start after striking trouble and has won on a slow track.