KEY POINTS:
Late season 2-year-old racing is generally dreary - predominantly second-class citizens that have been through the mill and the odd mudder with a bit of class and durability to stick out a distance beyond 1200m.
But today's $50,000 Sharp Foal Stakes at Ellerslie is a breath of fresh
air. Anything up to five or six of these going around could be in the top class 3-year-olds of the new season and Yao and Demhills could be special.
These two dominate the Listed Stakes race after excellent winning debut efforts. Yao was particularly stylish, looking at long odds to even be in the money 600m out at Woodville after a slow start, but he looped them on the corner and won as he liked.
He has a fair bit to learn and the opposition that day was far from stunning, but he has raw ability out of the ordinary.
Track conditions, although likely to be better than anticipated midweek, will play a part. There is a possibility that it may be difficult to make ground from the back and if Yao is again slow out of the gates, Demhills might pinch too much of a break in running. Watch the pattern in the three races before Race 7, although don't take too much notice if Hamlet's Ghost gives them a start in Race 5 because of his ability.
Demhills and Yao are both reported to have trained on since their debut runs. Outside of this pair it's very even through the next five or six runners.
Don't take too much notice of Ascot Isle (No4, R3) being beaten when resuming at Rotorua last start. The pattern of the on-pace dominated race was right against her and she had to come very wide on the home bend and was only four lengths off the winner Zerello. Star Of Rio (No3) should be a lot fitter for his recent first-up run at Te Rapa and is a dual winner at Ellerslie.
Xaarealdeal (No4, R4) looked good finishing fourth, promoted to third, on debut in a smart maiden line-up at Ellerslie on January 1. He has not started since and should have benefited from that last preparation. If Michael Coleman can find Vanitas (No10) a reasonable path without covering too much extra ground from a horror barrier draw the Pins filly could get some of the trifecta.
At the tight odds you can't back Hamlet's Ghost (No1, R5) and the trifecta is the way to go. Material Girl (No4) copped some backlash after starting from an inside gate when resuming at Rotorua and she was not knocked around when the job looked hopeless and Elblitzem (No3) produced a terrific finish when second to Hamlet's Ghost at Rotorua last start.
Quite a few chances in Race 6. Watch a replay of the finishing effort at Dargaville by White Lines (No12). That was at 1200m and if he can use the extra 200m this time to his advantage he could go close.
Pretorius (No1, R8) is jumping up a massive 5kg from his last start, but then this is not a Rotorua Cup line-up. His finishing burst that day was one of the features of the race and even with topweight today he will take some keeping out. Twinkling (No9) and Sable (No10) are chances, the latter getting into the clear too late at Rotorua last start.
Graphite Girl (No10, R10) is a value bet. She resumed from a spell at Rotorua and was not far away after sitting behind the speed throughout. She should be fitter for this and the slow track should help. It might not be wet enough for Jovial Jock (No3), but he could still get some of the trifecta.
At Trentham, Sculptor (No4, R7) looks a great bet with 54kg after his Rotorua Cup second to Balmuse. He will be just that little bit fitter and looks to have everything in his favour today, even if you'd probably prefer to see the track a touch better. Lilakyn (No2) is class and has a win from two starts in the slow stuff, but she would definitely appreciate better footing.
Sculptor's stablemate Lord Monty (No3, R3) is going for three straight. He had a rugged run winning narrowly at Te Rapa last weekend, but toughness is his middle name. He'll go close again.
Reel Secret (No6, R6) is not far off a win. He seems to need plenty of racing room and the big spaces of Trentham, where he is one from one, will give him every opportunity. Eternal Dancer (No10) could be the blowout for the trifecta.
The slow conditions are exactly what Vegas Showgirl (No3, R8) is looking for. She is exceptional when the tracks suit and Trentham is her sort of course. Take the short odds on offer. Abit Rusty (No4) didn't get much of a go at Rotorua last start.
Annie Bee (No7, R9) was running home soundly when fourth on resuming last start. She jumps from 1100m to 1400m and could be a surprise in the last with Patrick Bell pulling 2kg off her back.
* Strong word is that the official co-mingling document will be signed on Thursday by the NZ Racing Board and Australia's Tabcorp.
Expectations are that the co-mingling of betting pools by the two countries will start within a week of that signing.