KEY POINTS:
Not one of the 10 first picks for Te Rapa today won their last start.
In fact, only three even filled a minor placing, but last time out there was plenty of evidence of those things that much of racing is built on - excuses.
Probably the best
excuse was for Waitui Fox (No13, R10) who was criminally denied racing room along the inside when only seventh behind talented Zilt in unquestionably the strongest special conditions maiden race we've seen all year on this track three weeks ago.
Difficult to say he would have won when he finished 5.5 lengths back, but he certainly would have made it interesting.
A similar run today would see him right in contention in the last.
Local Thunder Road (No11) made up plenty from last over 1200m at Avondale last start and will appreciate today's 1400m.
There is no doubt Cape Fear (No2, R1) would have won at Hastings last start if he'd been three wide for only half the race instead of the entire 1600m trip.
He was only narrowly beaten and deserves to be strongly considered today, even though the outside gate is going to once again present him with problems.
It will be up to Troy Harris to find him the right trip.
Don't give Courtney (No15) away for being beaten on this track last start. She is worth staying with.
The form on paper of Madamvizelle (No3, R2) is dreadful and she even finished last at her most recent outing.
But she is an awful lot better than that. She is small and carried 57kg last start and will be greatly helped today by Sam Collett taking weight off to drop her to 54.5kg.
This is a tricky race, but Madamvizelle is worth a little each way. Suzie Temple (No5) is getting close to her form.
Danzatiger (No3, R3) has been posted wide at various stages of his two starts since a very good debut second chasing talented El Cid home at Matamata.
He's landed the rails draw today and we should see a more economical trip.
He would only need to repeat his debut effort to go close.
Ngahiti (No9), despite a wide gate, might be trifecta value.
Vanny Fair (No1, R4) took on stakes class at Ellerslie last start and did well to finish only 3 3/4 lengths behind Russian Conquest.
None of her opposition has even been placed at the races, so she makes a lot of appeal as the only winner in the field.
Danzahorse (No3, R5) won here two starts back and lost the race for veering across the track and last start was caught wide after being restrained early.
You can imagine him going forward from the No2 gate today and the win he deserves might come his way.
There was plenty to like about the debut effort of Foose (No2) in finishing a close third at Hastings. He got back from a wide gate and didn't receive the best of runs afterwards. He, too, deserves a quick victory.
Xaarealdeal (No6) was the beaten favourite when he resumed at Ellerslie, but he deserves another chance.
It took a smart type in Baha to topple Aquila Carrera (No1, R6) at Te Teko last start. She drops back a grade for this race and even though up 2kg she makes a lot of appeal.
Graphite Girl (No2) will be a lot fitter for her two runs and comes into this well as she steps up to a middle distance for the first time this preparation.
Polish Princess (No8, R8) is classy on her day.
She was beaten last start when only third at Rotorua, but it was still a sound effort and she rates very highly today. Don't forget her third to Floydeboy in the Champions Mile at Ellerslie.
Luckshan (No3) is fresh from running in the 3200m Auckland Cup in March, but don't underestimate his ability to throw in a good 1400m while fresh.
Race 9 is probably the toughest on the card.
Don't drop Jayasuriya (No12) because she failed at Ellerslie last week. Whether it was the right-handed track or the very holding conditions we'll never know, but she is better this way around and looked good in her racing before last week.
Stand Tall (No4) did just that when he won after a long break at Ellerslie last start and Chase The Sun (No10) wasn't quite as good when fourth last start as he was scoring a stunning debut win here two back, but is worth considering.
We all want to see Xcellent win the A$1 million ($1.1 million) Stradbroke in Brisbane, but it won't be easy.
Reining To Win (No11, R6) is going to be difficult to keep out. No one will ever know what happened when he was a rank failure in the 2020m Doomben Cup because it didn't appear as if the distance was the main issue.
He simply didn't fire, but his overall form is outstanding and freshened and back to the 1400m distance he is good at he appeals a lot. He has drawn wide, but in Glen Boss he has a rider with group one magic in his hands.
Black Ink (No5) and Damien Oliver are right in it. Black Ink will love the "off" conditions of the Eagle Farm track.
Graeme Rogerson's Fire Song (No8, R8) could be worth a look in the last. Three starts back she won well in Sydney and has her favourite rain-affected conditions today.
Don't forget, co-mingling means you can bet on the horses with New Zealand interests into a big pool and your bet won't make a difference to the price.