Mike DIllion: Apprentice allowance and ability on wet ground point to My Lips Ar Sealed

If it wasn't already going to be before, today's Ellerslie track will be for dead-set mudders after yesterday's rain.

You have to look for horses with great stats in the mud.

One of them is My Lips Ar Sealed, who faces only seven opponents in race two.

A couple of things are going to help. One is that all six of the veteran's wins have been on heavy footing.

Another is the 4kg Wan Ismail's apprentice allowance will take off his back, dropping his weight to 50kg.

In what will be very testing ground, that is a huge advantage. You can make a case against most of the runners in this race but there are few negatives around My Lips Ar Sealed, who was a model of consistency on mostly wet ground in his last preparation.

Race 1 could be a bit of a trap. A better proposition might be Race 3 in which Dargaville debut winner Johnny D'Cash (No 2) appeals. He came from a long way off them to win at Dargaville and although he didn't win by much, there was a look about the performance that suggested more of the same. He is by D'Cash from a mare by British Banker, so should enjoy ground even heavier than he struck in his northern assignment.

Material Girl (No 3, R4) has the right heavy stats to appeal. Her form on paper since looks unimpressive in four starts since she won at Hastings, but don't overlook the fact two of those were at group one level - the Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha and Easter Handicap at Ellerslie. Then she ran in group two company in the Travis Stakes. Last start she loomed up to win at Tauranga and fought reasonably well for sixth without flattering. This track today is going to suit her much better than in any of those runs. She is nicely positioned on 54kg. Sands Of Time (No 7) could be the surprise factor. He has always looked very smart and his Cambridge barrier trial win showed he had derived improvement from his first-up unplaced run at Avondale.

Wan Ismail's apprentice allowance is going to have a major influence on Race 5. Chatter Box (No 1), carrying just 54kg, stands out, even though most of her rivals are also claiming. Her fourth to Juice, carrying weight-for-age age 57kg, was a huge pointer when you consider the drop in class here to R90. Her wet weather form last campaign was excellent and she should be dead right for this race. Oriental Lad (No 7) is a player despite the fact that he is one of only two runners not claiming an allowance.

Difficult to know how to approach the day's feature, the $50,000 Foal Stakes. You've got a field of talented babies, none of whom have struck conditions like they'll face today. Two-year-olds will most times do their best regardless of the conditions and perhaps this will be decided simply on ability levels. If that's the case, Prince Of Wales (No 2, R6) can win. Like his possible main danger Fromm (No 7), he has shown plenty of fight when tackled in his two unbeaten runs and it's that type of grit that's going to win in the rain-affected ground at Ellerslie. Fromm will tough it out and Bally Duff (No 5) and Justanexcuse (No 1) add to an impressive line-up.

Race 7 is a tough affair, but Montina Diva (No 8) is worth an each-way look. She went just fairly on a slow surface at Te Rapa two back then won well when she got to a heavy track at Matamata last start. She is bred to handle the footing she will face here.

The major question around Race 9 is whether Our Big Guy (No 5) can handle the ground. If he can, they might be flat out beating him. He has impressed in only three raceday starts, particularly last start when he had to change ground in the home straight before really charging over the final 120m to be just beaten. He looks very talented.

The last is an interesting race. Mathias (No 3, R10) should start a deserved favourite after being just nosed out by Lily L'Amour at Tauranga last start. This track will be wetter, but he is one from one in the heavy stuff and will be fitter than most here. Fistral Bay (No 13) would almost certainly have won at Tauranga last start if the leader at the 220m, Solidarity, hadn't twice checked his momentum by running out on him late. Fistral Bay is jumping from R70 to R80, but the drop from 58kg to 53.5kg should make up that leeway. Zoomin (No 10) is an improver and Black Watch (No 2) finally gets the genuinely heavy ground he's been looking for.

If they get the rain that's forecast for Wellington today, they'll be swimming home at Trentham.

There was no surface water there yesterday, but apparently the surface is waterlogged and heavy rain will make it very testing.

Two who won't mind are Soph (No 2, R6), who is on her way to being a topline winter mare and Yanna Marie (No 3, R8). Anchor all multis through the pair, partcularly last-start Riccarton winner Yanna Marie, who has won two of her only three starts at the "graveyard".

Earlier in the day, Mountain Road (No1, Race 3) can repeat his New Plymouth win for the Baker stable. He maintains form once he strikes it and today's likely deep footing will suit him even more than the soft surface he struck at New Plymouth.