“But if the track comes up slow in the morning and it is not raining then she will go down.”
Trainers like Kelso and Katrina and Simon Alexander who train La Crique, who also want a slow track at worst, have the option of leaving their horses in the field and if there is rain on the day that downgrades the track they are allowed to scratch.
But Kelso would rather not make the trip all the way to Hastings to not start so he will be in for a busy morning on the phone before scratching time.
If Legarto doesn’t start today she will race in her hometown Matamata Cup next Saturday over 1600m.
“It is our back-up plan because it would give her four weeks before her main aim, the Golden Eagle in Sydney,” says Kelso.
If she starts and the track is in the slow range then Legarto is still the one to beat, even if the moisture content may slightly dull her sprint, because she has thrived since her first-up third and she has the draw to swoop, her ideal racing style.
If she is withdrawn that would mean a heavy track and that would be perfect for Mustang Valley, who ploughs through same mud that could bog her key rivals down.
Under those circumstances the hardest runner to assess is Sharp N Smart, who was dour over 1400m on the first day of the carnival but has won a group 2 on a heavy track in Sydney and could be a big improver today.
A heavy track will also bring Justaskme and Aromatic into play as long odds place chances.
One horse who shouldn’t be too adversely affected by a wet track is Hawkes Bay Guineas favourite Tokyo Tycoon (R5, No.1).
He has won on a heavy surface and was so dominant against many of today’s opposition last start he would need to regress or suffer bad luck in the running to be beaten.
His key rival for the 2000 Guineas at Riccarton in November, Crocetti, was again brilliant winning at Te Rapa yesterday to remain unbeaten in four starts.
The two star three-year-olds and the also unbeaten Lupo Solitario remain on track to all clash in the Sarten Memorial at Te Rapa on October 21.
