Horse racing: The five horses to back on NZ Cup day at Addington

Addington Raceway preparing for the IRT NZ Trotting Cup Day 2022 on Tuesday. 07 November 2022 New Zealand Herald Photograph by George Heard

Mick Guerin lists the five horses you should (responsibly) back on New Zealand Cup day at Addington and why:

1: Don’t Stop Dreaming (R9, No.2): Unbeaten before his last-start defeat at the hooves of Merlin in the Harness Million but as we all know the draws are vastly different this time.

But what really impressed last start wasn’t the fact that Don’t Stop Dreaming circled the field and sat parked to run second but even when tired in a sizzling last quarter he came again at the line.

He is a good horse and unless there is silly pressure early, he should win.

2: Republican Party (R5. No.7): He was so brave winning at Ashburton last start and his only defeat this campaign has come behind Akuta, when the latter led. Conversely, when Republican Party led the start before he was able to beat Akuta, who would smash these.

There is a stack of gate speed here and plenty of hardened old warriors, Cranbourne in particular, who will appreciate the drop in grade and return to the mobile but you get the feeling Republican Party might be the best horse with the most confidence.

3: Queen Of Diamonds (R7, No.10): You will go broke backing horses drawn one on the second line over 1980m, especially in group 1 races, but hear me out.

This filly is flying and while she trailed to beat stablemate True Fantasy at Ashburton last start she actually had to work from a wide draw first and won easier than her margin suggested.

The start before she was super coming from back in the field against many of these.

Not sure True Fantasy is going as well as she can but if she waltzes to the lead it may not matter but her defeats may have cost her some respect and there is a lot of gate speed here, including the filly Queen Of Diamonds follows out.

That raises the possibility a vacuum is created by the front line inside draw horses early and Queen Of Diamonds could get a decent run through and the chance to get off the markers and be midfield outer after 800m.

If none of that happens she might finish a brave 3rd or fourth but at around $5 it is worth taking the risk and you might know your fate early.

4: Masterly (R1, No.3): Everybody likes backing the first winner on Cup Day, then playing with house money afterwards.

Masterly might be that horse.

He proved he is an open class trotter in waiting when he destroyed good 3-year-olds in the Sires’ Stakes back in May and he resumed with a luckless but better than it looked seventh in the Hambo at Ashburton last start.

Trainer Paul Nairn reports he worked well with Resolve on Friday and while he may not be super fluent in his gait yet that will matter less up against the marker pegs, which is where he could end up as he is one of only three starting off the actual front line (the other frontliners are unruly).

If the Paul Nairn colours are leading at the bell in the first on Cup Day, do you really want to be on anything else?

5: El Conqueror (R12, No.10): Stablemate of Masterly (above) who is also a talented three-year-old ands in a far weaker field.

He ran on very strongly for second at Kaikoura last, distancing the third horse after being tardy early. Has been re-shod since which Nairn believes will give him more grip and confidence early.

If can get handy and behave himself he will only need to go as well as he did last Monday to be the one to beat around the $4 mark.