And even then one race later than some might expect.
While it will be great to eventually take her to Australia, Marsh told the Herald, “all going well, by the time we get through the NZB Kiwi, she might be ready for a break”.
“The reality is by that stage of the season, there probably aren’t that many Group 1 races in Australia that would suit her.
“And while you’d love to win a good race at The Championships [Sydney in April], often they can end up being held on a wet track there.
“So while nothing is set in concrete at the moment, she could wait until next season before heading there.”
If Well Written spanks her rivals in the Kiwi as the market suggests, she will almost certainly be crowned Horse of the Year and then be the filly everybody wants to know everything about during the dreary days of winter.
Which is where a new $500,000 bonus announced by New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing (NZTR) could develop into a key spring marketing tool.
The new bonus is worth $500,000 for the first NZB Kiwi contender In March who wins a New Zealand Group 1 race next season.
It has been divised to strengthen our Group 1 races by keeping more of our elite 4-year-olds racing in New Zealand rather than heading to Australia, where they often head to chase black-type wins to embellish their future breeding careers.
A prime example of the type of horse NZTR is hoping to keep in New Zealand with the new bonus is Damask Rose, who won both the Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old and the NZB Kiwi last season – but hasn’t raced here since.
So if Well Written develops into the horse many in the industry think and hope she will, Marsh and his ownership group will have a mammoth incentive to kick her off in New Zealand next spring.
The obvious target would be a race like the Proisir Plate, a Group 1 over 1400m that was run at Ellerslie this season, which, if Well Written or any other NZB Kiwi contender were to win, they’d trigger the $500,000 bonus.
That bonus would be shared, $250,000 each between the horse’s connections and their NZB Kiwi slot-holder, but that still means Well Written or one of her NZB Kiwi rivals could target the Proisir Plate and win close to $500,000 in stakes and bonuses, all while racing at home before being set for any Australian campaign.
“It is fair to say we are very aware of the bonus and without getting ahead of ourselves, it could be very enticing,” Marsh said.
“Ideally, if you are going to take a horse to Australia, you love a race here to know they are in the right form so yes, the Proisir Plate could become that race and obviously more attractive with the bonus attached.”
Marsh said without thoroughly discussing any plans with Well Written’s owners, the A$10m Golden Eagle at Randwick later in the spring would be the most logical aim.
“We know there is the [A$20m] Everest too ... but there might be a certain Hong Kong horse coming down for that,” he smiled in reference to world champion sprinter Ka Ying Rising.
Well Written will likely have an exhibition gallop or trial before the NZB Kiwi but there were plenty of other trainers whose stable star’s plans were not so clear after Saturday’s dazzling meeting.
Last season’s Railway winner Crocetti was found to have mucus in his throat so must be very unlikely for the BCD Sprint at Te Rapa on February 7, while Alabama Lass is also almost certain to miss that Group 1.
“She has pulled up fine and [there is] nothing obviously wrong so she will be thoroughly vetted on Tuesday before we make a decision,” co-trainer Ken Kelso said.
Victorian trainer Ben Hayes confirmed Railway runner-up Arkansaw Kid will head to Te Rapa along with stablemate Here To Shock, who won the BCD Sprint last year, while racing officials are working to keep Railway winner Jigsaw here for the BCD as well.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.