Last Tuesday the Pukekohe track, which dries very quickly, was upgrade from a Soft 57 to a Soft 5 during the meeting so the trainers of horses in the later feature races will be hoping for more sunshine throughout the day to dry the track out.
Any rain during the meeting though will further confuse matters so punters could be sharing those trainers’ headaches and would be wise to wait to see how the track plays and weather holds before getting too serious today.
While the early races may be won by hot favourites Lupo Solitario (R2) and Move To Strike (R3), both of whom have performed on heavy tracks at the trials, the track conditions will complicate the later races more.
The Railway is the highlight of the day and four of the big names in Johny Johny, Sacred Satono, Waitak and Babylon Berlin has won on a heavy track but the remaining six have not, admittedly from a small data base.
With the Railway not until 4.16pm those stats may be rendered irrelevant by then but with the margins between victory and defeat so small at that level of racing the conditions could be just as important as sheer speed.
The Rich Hill Mile is another of the black type race where track conditions will impact the market as both favourites Habana and Lingjun Xiongfeng would be better suited by a track no worse than slow.
“It is going to be a tricky day if we get the rain they predict,” said Lance Noble yesterday.
“But what do you do. We have horses like Habana and Terra Metica (R6, No.3) who looked really well placed but don’t want heavy rain overnight or rain on the day.”
Terra Mitica is one of the more interesting punting propositions of the day as she is a $2 favourite for the Queen Elizabeth II Cup and while she started her career in England she surprisingly never raced on a wet track there or in her three starts since being imported.
“She is bred to handle it and is light on her feet and we have to go around because it is a Group 3 where she only carries 53kg with a top jockey on,” says Noble.
The one major race which may not be impacted by the weather is the $225,000 Sir Patrick Hogan Stakes for the 3-year-old fillies as favourites Still Bangon and My Lips Are Sealed quinellaed the Eulogy Stakes on a very testing Trentham track last start.
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Rarely is a jockey in a better position to judge the merits of a field than Michael McNab heading into today’s $450,000 Sistema Railway at Pukekohe.
Which is why his confidence with Sacred Satono carries so much weight.
The two-time premiership winner has ridden seven of the 10 starters in the Railway in either a race or trial, with Johny Johny, Waitak and Bonny Lass the only ones he hasn’t taken for a spin.
“It is a good field obviously but I am pretty sure I am on the right horse,” says McNab, who has moved to two wins off the premiership lead after a huge last fortnight.
“I like everything about him, his talent, his demeanour and I think he will only get better over a little more distance.”
McNab admits barrier 1 may not be ideal by Railway time today but expects the speed to be on to break open the field so all runners will get their chance.
He also rates Agera a good each way chance in today’s last race.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s racing editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
