Adam Hamilton: Of course Elsu deserves to win but...

Interest rates have just gone up in New Zealand and it seems those with some punting blood see Elsu as a way to combat the rising mortgage repayments.

The way the pacer has been backed from $1.65 to $1.45 to win tonight's Interdominion final suggests people think it is just a matter of lending the TAB some money and getting it back at about 10.15 tonight with 45 per cent interest.

Hello ... it's time for a reality check.

Elsu certainly is the best horse in the race, and maybe by quite a way, but he's drawn a bad barrier - he will start from outside of the front row - and he faces the best pacers from Australia and New Zealand.

It might be me, but to take $1.45 or so I would want to be backing a guaranteed leader who I thought had 50m in ability over his rivals.

That's just not the case with Elsu. He is a genuine superstar and will probably win, but his odds are ridiculously short.

Regardless of his stunning form through the heats, remember Elsu has only a slight 5-4 advantage over Just An Excuse from nine meetings and was easily beaten by Sokyola the only time they met at the races.

The odds the NZ TAB are offering for Elsu at the moment make him the shortest price favourite in the history of the Interdominion, which started when Logan Derby won in Perth way back in 1936.

Even triple Interdominion winner Our Sir Vancelot, who had a lap on a moderate bunch of rivals in the 1998 Hobart final, started $1.80.

And bookmakers gave $1.80 for Village Kid, a winner of all three heats and guaranteed leader in the 1986 Brisbane final.

Preux Chevalier, who ranks with Popular Alm and Christian Cullen as the best pacer I have seen, holds the record for the shortest-priced Interdominion final winner. He started $1.50 when he overcame a pre-race colic scare to beat Village Kid in front of 40,000-plus people at Moonee Valley in 1985.

That comparison with Preux Chevalier is an interesting one because it begs the question, just where will Elsu rank among pacing's greats if he completes an Interdominion clean sweep tonight?

Personally, Preux Chevalier is the best pacer I have seen. He ranks just ahead of Popular Alm with Christian Cullen in the same league for pure talent.

Elsu is entering that class.

After a slightly disappointing start to the season, Geoff Small's stable star has turned it around in glorious fashion.

His Auckland Cup win on New Year's Eve was a step in the right direction, but his Hunter Cup win at Moonee Valley on February 12 was breathtaking.

Remarkably, Elsu seems to have kept improving since and it is hard to recall a pacer being quite so dominant at the very top level. He deserves to win tonight.

As has so often been the case in recent times, Sokyola is again carrying the hopes of Australians in those ageing legs of his.

In contrast to last year's Perth series, Sokyola's form has deteriorated through the heats, but trainer-driver Lance Justice knows him best and he is tipping a mighty run tonight. "I know I told you last weekend I didn't think I could beat Elsu, but the old horse has been so well over the past few days I've changed my mind. I'll lead and take a hell of a lot of catching," he said.

Just An Excuse is the other class factor and is drawn well (gate three).

* Adam Hamilton is an Australian harness racing journalist.