Racing: Mammoth task faces Sedecrem

By MIKE DILLON

Betting against Sedecrem is like ignoring the world gold standard.

But as much as you have to love him and as talented as he is, Sedecrem faces a mammoth task in today's group one $130,000 Thorndon Mile at Trentham.

And it's not just the 57kg topweight. That won't make his task easy, but track conditions and the way the track is racing might be right against the popular Takanini star.

That package will put him under pressure.

The 57kg alone will not stop Sedecrem, he has more than earned that weight.

Whether horses are able to sustain sprints from the 350m on today's track condition is what will decide his chances.

On Monday's rain-affected track at Trentham, horses could barely sprint at all in the home straight.

In those conditions Sedecrem would be 50-1 today.

So watch the racing pattern for the first half of today's programme. If horses are flashing home from mid-field with sustained efforts then Sedecrem is a real hope.

Marie Claire is his big hurdle. Unlike Sedecrem, she has everything in her favour. She races well fresh, likes Trentham and will appreciate what the mid-week rain has done to the track.

Trainer Paul O'Sullivan says her training has been excellent and at the odds - $7 yesterday - she looks a fine risk.

The job is not easy for trifecta takers - it is an even line-up behind the two mentioned. Silky Red Boxer, Our Fuji, Sir Kinloch and Lashed all have claims and a win by any of that quartet would not be shock, horror.

If you take the view that track conditions will work against Galway Lass then The Mighty Lions (No13, R9) can take the $250,000 Lion Brown Wellington Cup.

O'Sullivan was to walk the track early this morning to decide whether Galway Lass takes her place.

The Mighty Lions has a lot going for her. The 52kg appeals, so does her flashing second to Regal Krona in the Avondale Cup and luckless fourth in the Auckland Cup, where she was left in the open far too soon.

Quite frankly, there are only two or three in this field that could have matched either of those performances. She is trained in Melbourne and today switches back to racing that left-handed way around.

Then she has Michael Coleman, a classy, astute 3200m rider. If The Mighty Lions is suited by the conditions she will go close.

If Galway Lass (No7) takes her place and, against the odds, if the track comes back to be barely easy, then she could still be a hope. But the memory of her struggling on a track that was hardly rain-affected at all in the New Zealand Cup is a worry.

The South Islanders Torlesse (No2) and Cabella (No5) possibly hold the key to the threats. The better the conditions the better the chances of Torlesse, who was very impressive sprinting past them to win the New Zealand Cup. A tough track would make it hard for him to produce his impressive finish.

In a field of this class Hail (No1) has to be a chance, despite his 58kg, and the real roughie is Tunzi (No18), who worked home into third last week like a horse looking for 3200m.

Dipped 'N' Grey (No9, R2) nearly dipped himself in glory when he stretched the brilliant Falkirk's neck at Te Rapa last start. He put three lengths on Falkirk out of the barriers that day and it is interesting that trainer Don Dwyer has put blinkers on him for this start. The safest bet is that he will be first to leave the gates again today. There are some useful sorts in this, but provided the track is not counting against on-pace runners, he should go close. Sovereign (No3) wilted after sitting outside the leader at Ellerslie last start. He won from the trail the time before and from the No 2 gate this time, will possibly get a similar passage.

Mixty Emotion (No11, R4) was beaten only a long neck by the smart filly Madame Shinko in a 3-year-old race on this course last start back in November. That is good enough form to win this maiden race.

The third by Danette (No11, R5) to Kainui Belle in the $100,000 Eight Carat Classic at Ellerslie on Boxing Day is sufficient to guarantee favouritism for the Wellington Stakes. She has had plenty of time to recover from that and this race is down a bit in class. De La Costa (No4) has yet to meet a top field, but he is talented and don't be surprised if he gives cheek here.

Wings On Fire (No13, R8) must get some luck soon. She could have won any one, or all, of her last three starts, her nose defeat last Saturday being enough to make grown men cry. She is stepping up in class here from that, but that may not matter provided fortune is on her side for a change. Eagarpence (No7) has been racing in better company.

There will be no justice if Sunlaw (No3, R11) does not get compensation with a win. Her close second to King's Chapel in the group one Telegraph last week was a stunner, but no surprise on her terrific second to Taimana in the Concorde at Avondale in December. She is dropping from group one class to PQ grade.

* The Trentham track late yesterday had improved to a reading of 3.2 and easy, a big improvement from the 4.1 track of Thursday.

Wellington RC chief executive Eddie Janson said that with fine conditions and a healthy wind a much better track than expected could result today. "If it's fine overnight ... it could even drop back to something like a 2.5 track," said Janson.