Motorsport: F1's marathon ends in four-way sprint

In a hectic finale, the last Formula One race of the season sees motorsport fans the world over reaching for their calculators, writes
Winston Aldworth. The mathematics are horribly complicated but Sebastian Vettel's controlled win from teammate Mark Webber at Interlagos, Brazil, Red Bull's fourth one-two of the season, has left four drivers still in the hunt going into the final Grand Prix of the season. Fernando Alonso is in front, with Webber and Vettel hot on his heels - and Lewis Hamilton hoping for a mathematical miracle ...

Fernando Alonso

What he needs:

Any finish in the top two will see the Spaniard, who spent most of the season bubbling under the top three, crowned champion. He can afford to finish further down the board, depending on how his feted three rivals perform - but it's unlikely that one - or both - of the Red Bulls won't be on the podium. Victory would make him the youngest ever driver to win a third world championship.

In his favour:

He only needs to finish second, so won't do anything stupid in a push for first.

Against him:

They've said they won't, and there'll be an uproar if they do, but a crafty dose of team orders from the Red Bull drivers could swing things the way of Mark Webber. It would be ironic were Alonso to lose the title to such tactics, given the seven extra points he won at Hockenheim when Felipe Massa was ordered out of his way. Jenson Button, out of the running after a miserable time in Brazil, said he did not care who relieved him of his crown as long as Alonso, if it is him, "wins by more than seven points".

With big egos at play and Alonso's history of personal tension with most drivers in the field, don't expect Webber, Vettel or Hamilton to politely make way.

He says:

"It doesn't matter who wins in Abu Dhabi if I finish second. So the main goal for us is to be on pole on Saturday and to win the race on Sunday. If we cannot do that, because we are not quick enough, we try to be second."

Mark Webber

What he needs:

A little help from a friend. Webber's season started to go wobbly with a collision between himself and Red Bull teammate Sebastian Vettel in the Turkish Grand Prix.

With Fernando Alonso unlikely to drop off the pace and Vettel favourite to take pole, the Australian might need his teammate to move aside in the final laps.

If Alonso is sitting third or fourth, Webber can expect a courteous wave from his teammate. If the Spaniard is outside the top four, the two Red Bulls will go at each other and Webber can expect no favours.

In his favour:

The only Australian to win a Formula One race since Alan Jones in 1981, Webber has pretty much ignored the cold shoulder his team appeared to show him when they smiled on Vettel in the early stages.

He'll need more of that Aussie nerve and grit this weekend.

Formula One is a young man's game, and the 31-year-old will know he's unlikely to get this close to the title again.

Against him:

His pace has dropped off as the season has gone on and Vettel, whose pace is rising, might not feel inclined to move aside when it matters.

He says:

"It helps, but it is not in the team's philosophy [to impose team orders]. Obviously Fernando got some points at Hockenheim. It's the way it is. We go to Abu Dhabi and have to get a few more off Fernando."

Sebastian Vettel

What he needs:

Alonso is the key figure in Vettel's calculations. If the Spaniard finishes outside the top four, Vettel is pretty much in a straight race with his teammate, Australian Mark Webber.

In his favour:

The young German is the bookies' favourite to win in Abu Dhabi given recent form. His team have insisted they wouldn't force team orders on either driver and last week in Brazil they were as good as their word when, with Vettel leading, no order came to let Webber (who is better placed to win the drivers' title) pass him for the lead.

Against him:

His own team - Red Bull technical chief Adrian Newey said this week he hoped Vettel would allow Mark Webber through to win the driver's championship should the chance arise. Which is not to suggest his pit crew are anything but committed to Vettel's title hunt, but it's not quite a ringing endorsement.

If both Red Bulls are in first and second position, with Fernando Alonso in third, then Webber would have to win the race to take the title, while a Vettel victory would see Alonso take the crown. Says Newey: "Ultimately, if one of the drivers is out if it, then I hope he would be magnanimous enough to help the other."

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner said he had "zero doubt" his drivers would do the right thing given the circumstances.

He says:

(On team orders) "Both of us know how to act."

Lewis Hamilton

What he needs:

Hamilton has to win. He also needs something of a miracle as far as the other contenders are concerned. He must hope that Alonso does not score any points at all, Webber finishes no higher than sixth and Vettel no higher than third. All very unlikely.

Nonetheless, the 2008 champion will enjoy being the wildcard in such an unstable pack and will drive as aggressively as ever - and most likely more aggressively than the other three.

In his favour:

Not much. There is - bizarrely - a chance of heavy rain in Abu Dhabi, which could bring chaos to the track, throwing Hamilton a puncher's chance.

Against him:

Too many miracles are needed at the end of a testing season for McLaren. With half an eye on the 2011 season - when their cars are picked to be much quicker - they've conceded that their car hasn't been up to pace this year. After his fourth place in Brazil, Hamilton hardly fizzed with confidence. "We weren't quick enough here and we won't be quick enough in Abu Dhabi," Hamilton said. "Realistically, we need a miracle."

He says:

"I don't give a damn about any of those three. At the end of the day, I am still in it so I will give it a shot. They have a lot more to lose than I have. I won't be looking up at them or letting them pass. I am going to Abu Dhabi to try to win. We don't have the fastest car but I could be riding in fourth and all three don't finish."